BREAKING NEWS-Inside Bengals Defensive Film Session

Rookie defensive tackle Pat Sims made his NFL debut on Sunday, and we were granted access to the Bengals film session on Monday. Here is a look at how things went:

SCENE: Meeting Rooms at Paul Brown Stadium. Defense is watching film together with head coach Marvin Lewis. The room is dark, and there is snoring heard around the room. Coach Lewis cannot hear it because he is focused intently on the film being shown.

Marvin Lewis: Dammit, Pat (Sims), you were in the Jets backfield on that play.

Pat Sims: (looking confused) yeah coach, i was.

(another play is shown and Sims again bursts through the line)

ML: God Dammit, Pat!! You were in the backfield again on that play!

PS: Yeah coach, but...

ML: No buts. You know that our defensive scheme calls for the tackles to be driven back at least three yards. You are fucking up the entire defense when you are in the backfield like that. Haven't you been watching John at all this season?? John, please explain to Pat his role as a defensive tackle again.

John Thornton: Yeah coach. I try to stand straight up so it is easier for the offensive lineman to push me back. This helps me get to the three yard depth we are looking for. Once I have achieved that depth, I either continue getting pushed backwards, or I fall on my ass, either technique is acceptable.

ML: Exactly! John I sure hope you heal up quickly, I don't know how much more of these young guys I can take!

(tape continues.....Sims makes a tackle in the backfield......Lewis jumps up from his seat and throws his clipboard on the floor.)

ML: Jesus Christ! That makes five tackles and a quarterback pressure in limited action Pat!

PS: Thanks coach.

ML: That wasn't a fucking compliment. We are not looking for selfish players on this team. If you would have played the entire game you might have had 8 tackles or more. Who ever heard of that?? Our defensive tackles are not supposed to make plays. How on earth are Rashad (Jeanty) and Dhani (Jones) supposed to get their tackles if you are making them? I've dealt with your type before. You young guys think its cool to burst through the line and disrupt the other team's offense. You ever heard of Shaun Smith and Langston Moore?

PS: I know who they are.

ML: Well those guys thought it was cool to do their own thing instead of getting pancaked like the plays called for, and they found themselves looking for work elsewhere. You have to learn to be more of a team player, right John?

JT: That's right coach. How do you think Landon Johnson was able to lead this team in tackles for multiple seasons? It took a lot of hard work by me to make sure I left all of the tackling up to Landon. I just focused my energy on going backwards and falling on my ass. If at the end of the day I had grass stains on my ass and cleat marks on my chest, I knew I had done my job.

ML: You listen to him Pat. John has been to a Super Bowl, isn't that right John?

JT: You got it coach. I led the Titans to the Super Bowl, and I almost got us a victory, but the rest of the team let me down. Take it from me kid, you are only doing your job well if you are moving backwards.

(Sims looks puzzled. Everything he has just heard is the opposite of what he has been taught his whole life.)

(the tape continues rolling....Chinedum Ndukwe is shown flying around, making a tackle...Lewis again pauses the tape.)

ML: Chinny, what was that?

CN: A tackle, coach?

ML: Yes it was, but why on earth are you the one making it??

CN: I thought that it was my job to make tackles.

ML: There's your problem. You thought wrong! I don't think there is any play in our defense that has the safeties flying around like that, is there Dexter?

Dexter Jackson: (looking up from polishing his Super Bowl Ring) No coach. I try and act like my feet are in quicksand, or like they are stuck in cement. This helps me to stay in one place while all of the action goes right past me.

ML: Perfect! I hope you are taking notes Chinny. If you are flying around making tackles, then who is standing still, holding their position?

CN: My bad, coach.

ML: Its ok, you are still young. Just keep learning from a vet like Dexter. Dexter was a Super Bowl MVP, right?

DJ: That's right! I led the Bucs to a win over the Raiders. Everyone remembers my interceptions from that game. What people forget is that I played along side Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks, Ronde Barber, and John Lynch. They also forget that we were playing Coach Gruden's old team and that the defense knew almost every play the Raiders ran. I did not have to do anything. I just went where the coaches put me and Rich Gannon threw the ball right to me. Still, I have been milking that one game throughout my career. I even got Mike Brown to overpay for me even though no one else was showing any interest in signing me. Still, it was a smart move by Mr. Brown. He saves money by overpaying for a free agent no one wants, and he can still spin it by pointing to my Super Bowl MVP and the fact that he paid more than I wanted. This is still cheaper than going after a quality free agent that multiple teams want. Why get in a bidding war over a good player when you can have DJ?

ML: A Super Bowl MVP and a savvy businessman.

DJ: Don't forget that I can also talk a lot or trash with the other sideline while play on the field is going on!

(Lewis, Jackson, and Thornton all laugh hysterically. Marvin is giggling like a Monday press conference).

(tape continues....Marvin White is shown picking off a Brett Favre pass.)

ML: Marvin, what are you doing here?

Marvin White: Well, coach, I had man coverage, and I picked up my man and made a play on the ball.

ML: But why isn't your man behind you?

MW: I thought I was supposed to make sure that no one got behind me. I thought that the safeties are the last line of defense.

ML:(throwing hands in air in exasperation) Dexter, please teach the youngster.

DJ: Again, as a safety, you need to pretend like you are stuck in quicksand. This will make sure that your guy gets behind you. You always want to be between the ball and your receiver.

MW: That doesn't make any sense.

DJ: (flashing his Super Bowl Ring at White) Sure it does. How are you supposed to pick off any passes if you are behind your guy?

MW: But won't I get burned for touchdowns all the time playing like that?

DJ: Hey, that's just the way it goes sometimes.

MW: Man, I still have a lot to learn.

ML: Its ok, Marvin. Just stick close to Dexter and you will go far. One last thing Dexter. Should you ever be in a position to scoop up a fumble like Chinny did last week?

DJ: Hell no, coach. I never go across the line of scrimmage. Even if I am supposed to be blitzing, I like to hang around the line of scrimmage and just kind of scope things out. This way I make sure I don't get in anyone else's way.

ML: Spoken like a true champion. Did you catch that Chinny and Marvin?

CN & MW: Yes coach.

ML: Very good. John and Dexter I really need you guys to heal up quickly. I don't know how much more of these young guns I can take. All of their hustle and play making is screwing up our defensive system. Pat, maybe you know why you have been inactive until last week.

PS: I got it coach.

ML: (raising the lights and standing up) OK guys, lets get out to practice. We are 0-6 and have the Steelers this week. We are very close to being a good team. Just make sure that no one tries too hard, and certainly make sure to do no more than your assignment calls for. You got it, knuckleheads? (looking at Sims and Chinny)

PS & CN: (smiling sheepishly) we got it, coach!

ML: All right, well lets go get em!

(Everyone puts on their equipment and begins heading out to the practice field. Thornton stops Sims on the way out.)

JT: (handing Sims some kind of padded equipment) Here you go kid. This is my ass pad. It really helps me out when I am out there. I have no worries of getting knocked on my ass when I am wearing this. It is my secret weapon.

PS: (nodding his head) Wow, thanks a lot John. I can learn so much from you.

JT: Just take it one day at a time, kid. Stick with me and you will have a bright future ahead of you.

(Sims straps on his ass pad and heads out to practice as yet another young defensive tackle is ruined by the Bengals.)

Week 6 Picks

Sunday, October 12

Oakland @ New Orleans (-7)
The Saints are coming off of a devastating loss last Monday night to Minnesota in which they did everything but gift wrap the game to the Vikings. New Orleans held Adrian Peterson to 32 yards on 21 carries and had two touchdowns off of Reggie Bush punt returns but still found a way to blow it in the end. Kevin Kaesviharn committed a bad pass interference penalty with under two minutes to go deep in Saints territory that set up Ryan Longwell's game winning field goal. The Saints were the favorite of many experts to win the NFC South prior to the season, but their sloppy play has already cost them two winnable games, the other being a loss in Denver. At 2-3 this is a game New Orleans has to have if they want any shot of winning their division. This will be the first game of the Tom Cable era in Oakland, and I doubt that the results will be much different from his predecessor, Lane Kiffin. Oakland should be able to put up some point on this New Orleans team, but I think Drew Brees will have a big day, and the Saints offense should be enough to cover the spread. SAINTS 34-21.

Baltimore (+4) @ Indianapolis
Last week is a perfect example of why I do not put money on the NFL anymore. I had the Texans beating the Colts, and everything looked golden until Sage Rosenfels decided to do his best Superman impression, diving through the air while trying to pick up a first down. Unfortunately he fumbled, and the Colts returned it for a touchdown. Another Rosenfels fumble on the next possession led to the Colts third touchdown in four minutes and one of the more improbable comebacks of recent memory. This Colts victory does not have me fooled. They are not very good this year, and they should be 0-4 right now instead of 2-2. Their only other win came against Minnesota in a game that the Vikings dominated for three quarters, but failed to punch the ball into the end zone. The Ravens, on the other hand, lost to the undefeated Titans in the last minutes of a game controlled by the two defenses. Baltimore's defense should have their way against the sputtering Indy offense, and look for Le'Ron McClain to run through the porous Colts defense. RAVENS 23-17.

Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets
Call me crazy, but I think this is the week the Bengals get their first victory, led by their up and coming defense. Cincinnati has gotten solid play out of rookie linebacker Keith Rivers, and the young secondary of Leon Hall, Jonathan Joseph, Chinedum Ndukwe, and Marvin White should be able to make some plays on errant Brett Favre throws. The Bengals offense has yet to find any consistency, but newly acquired Cedric Benson provides them with the power running threat the team has missed following Rudi Johnson's departure. The Jets have also started this season relatively inconsistent, although Favre did throw for six touchdowns two weeks ago. Coming off of a bye, the Jets will be well rested, but there is a chance that they overlook the 0-5 Bengals. In a season filled with surprises, I expect the Bengals to go into East Rutherford and find their first win. BENGALS 24-21.

Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Panthers may be one of the best teams in the NFC, and no one seems to have taken notice to their fast start. Their defense is playing better than it has in the past few years, and the offense is putting up points thanks in large part to the success of their running game. Rookie Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams provide Carolina with a nice one-two punch that creates problems for opposing defenses. Williams ran for 123 yards and had three total touchdowns in last week's 34-0 beatdown of the Chiefs, and Stewart has quietly emerged as one of the top rookie running backs in the league. Combine the running game with the big play ability of Steve Smith, and the Panthers have one of the more dangerous offenses in the NFL. Jon Gruden's quarterback roulette may have finally caught up with him as Brian Griese was knocked out of last week's 16-13 loss in Denver. Gruden will now turn to Jeff Garcia again, and it will be interesting to see how Garcia responds after being benched only a few weeks back. Gruden should have never went away from Garcia as the veteran QB has proven he has what it takes to get his teams into the playoffs. If Tampa wants any chance of winning this game, they will need a big day from Earnest Graham on the ground, and their defense will have to step up against Carolina's offense. I expect another efficient game by Stewart and Williams, and one or two big plays to Smith which will put them over the top. PANTHERS 20-16.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5)
Normally I would never, ever lay two touchdowns on a team led by Gus Frerotte, but this is a special circumstance. The Lions are absolutely terrible, having fallen behind 31-0, 21-3, 21-0, and 21-0 in their four losses. Detroit's offense is getting nothing out of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, thanks to the horrific play of their quarterbacks, and their defense has yet to show any resistance against opposing offenses. Adrian Peterson should have a field day in the one. VIKINGS 31-13.

Chicago (-3) @ Atlanta
The Falcons showed the rest of the league that they might be for real last week, going into Green Bay and beating the Packers 27-24. Matt Ryan has proven that he was worth the #3 pick in the draft, and Michael Turner continues to chew up defenses with a combination of power and speed that few backs in the league possess. Atlanta has played especially well at home, and they will have a chance this week to go to 4-2 which would match their win total for the entire 2007 season. The Bears will also be looking to go to 4-2, and they have had quality play at the quarterback position from an unexpected source as well. Kyle Orton threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns last week, giving him 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns for the season to go against only two interceptions. Rookie running back Matt Forte has been the perfect compliment to Orton, and Chicago's defense is again playing like one of the top 10 defenses in the league. This game is essentially a coin flip for me, but I think the Bears D will make things difficult for Ryan, and Forte will provide enough on offense to get the win. BEARS 28-17.

Miami @ Houston (-3)
Speaking of coin flips, this is another game that I honestly have no idea on. The Texans are too good to be 0-4 right now, and last week's loss to Indy is the type of loss that could ruin an entire season. With Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson, Houston has big play threats on offense, and Mario Williams continues to dominate on the defensive side of the ball. Williams already has five sacks this season as he continues to make the Texans brass look smart for passing on Reggie Bush. The Dolphins have two very quality wins under the belt, winning in New England and in San Diego. Their "Wildcat" formation is causing all kinds of headaches for opposing defensive coordinators, and Ronnie Brown looks like he has already completely recovered from last year's ACL surgery. I think this is the week that the Wildcat formation hits its first speed bumps, and Matt Schaub will not give away the game the way Sage Rosenfels did last week. TEXANS 30-23.

St. Louis (+14) @ Washington
I have no rhyme or reason for this selection, but I think that the Rams will react well to Jim Haslett taking over. Haslett's first move as head coach was to give the starting quarterback job back to Marc Bulger, and I think the Rams will play much better on offense from here on out. The Redskins are 4-1, and look like one of the best teams in football. Clinton Portis is playing like an MVP, and Jason Campbell has yet to throw an interception this season. They are coming off of two huge wins in Dallas and Philadelphia, and this would be a prime spot for a bit of a let down. I still think Washington wins, but this game will be closer than anyone expects, with the 'Skins pulling away in the fourth quarter. REDSKINS 27-20.

Need to get some sleep, so here are the rest of my picks:

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Denver
Philadelphia (-6) @ San Francisco
Dallas @ Arizona (+6)
Green Bay (+3) @ Seattle
New England @ San Diego (-5)
New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland

LAST WEEK (Overall): 6-8
LAST WEEK (ATS): 5-8-1
SEASON (Overall): 43-31
SEASON (ATS): 37-35-2

The Injury Skill Factor

I was listening to a Bill Simmons podcast the other week, and he was saying some things that I have been arguing for some time now. It is the fact that you have to account for a player's durability when evaluating his talent level. At some point, injuries are not just the product of bad luck, they are a skill that some players can manage and some cannot. The interesting and difficult task is determining how much a player's durability is factored in when evaluating him on the whole. This topic is of extra sensitivity to Cincinnati fans who have had to deal with Ken Griffey Jr. and Chris Perry over the past decade. It will also play a vital role this baseball off season as the Reds try to determine what to do with their outfield. Do they bring back Jerry Hairston Jr. who provided a spark to the line up in 2008? Can they feel comfortable with Hairston or Ryan Freel penciled into their starting line up for 2009? Here is a quick rundown of each player's durability and why the Reds should look at other options for next season:

Jerry Hairston Jr.

• Has played over 120 games in a season only twice and not since 2002.
• Since 2002 has played in 58, 86, 114, 101, 73, and 80 games.
• Had career year in 2008 despite playing in only 80 games. Hit .326 with .871 OPS, had second most RBIs in his career and third most stolen bases.

Now, knowing all of that and the fact that Hairston is 32 years old, do you bring him back next season if you are the Reds? I might if the price is right, but there is no way you can expect more than half a season of work out of him as his career has dictated. You also cannot expect a repeat of his 2008 numbers. 2008 was a career year, and as he gets older there is no reason to expect similar results.

Ryan Freel

• Let me preface this by saying that I have never been a big Ryan Freel fan because I just don't think he is that talented to begin with. That being said, he can play several positions which provides valuable depth to whatever team he is on.
• From '04-'06 played an average of 126 games/season and hit .277, .271, .271 respectively.
• Played only 75 games in '07 and 48 games in '08 while seeing his OPS drop from the .740s to under .700.
• Has only stolen 21 bases the last two seasons combined after averaging 37 stolen bases over the previous three seasons.

Freel is someone who many Cincinnati fans have gotten behind because of his hustle, but the fact remains that his hustle is often reckless and gets him injured way too much. This is a factor that has to be considered when evaluating Freel. Again, it is a reason why you cannot pencil him in as a starter going forward, and it is a reason why his best role is as a utility man off the bench.

This is just one example of how a player's durability can affect important roster decisions. It should always play a role in evaluating a player's value over their career. Brett Favre might be a diva, but one cannot argue with the fact that he has been able to start every game over the past 16 seasons. Aaron Rodgers is hurt again this season, after getting hurt in limited action in the past. Rodgers appears to have all of the necessary skills to be a successful NFL quarterback, but if he cannot stay on the field, it does the Packers no good. The same can be said about Ken Griffey Jr. and his stay in Cincinnati. I heard so many fans say that you can't blame him for getting hurt and that his swing was still one of the best in baseball. That might all be true, and I would not necessary blame him for his injuries, but it has to be taken into consideration when determining his play. What good is his swing if he is always hurt? It is a delicate balance that general managers have to weigh when putting together a roster. A player might be one of the best in the game when healthy, but how much do you invest in that player if he is injury prone? It is seen all over the place in sports. Ben Sheets is considered an ace pitcher by most, but how can someone be an ace if they serve multiple stints on the disabled list year after year? To me, an ace is someone who will give you 200+ innings year after year. It is someone who will take the ball every fifth day and give his team a great chance of winning. This is what makes someone like Roy Halladay so valuable. Yes, he has electric stuff, but he also goes deep into every game he pitches as evidenced by the fact that he has thrown 220+ innings in five of the last seven seasons. Even the two seasons where he had minor injuries, Halladay still started in 19 and 21 games.

This is what makes the Bengals' decision to go with Chris Perry as the #1 back an odd one. He played in only 2 games in 2004, 14 in '05, 6 in '06, and missed all of 2007. This is just bad roster management to go with someone as your feature running back when he has never shown the ability to stay healthy. It is especially risky given that NFL running backs take a beating week after week. Perry has been healthy so far this season, but he has yet to really show the burst that he did three years ago. Putting large investments in injury riddled players can hamstring teams because they will be hesitant to move on from these players because of the money they make and the fear that they will move on somewhere else and turn into the player that everyone thought they would be. At the end of the day, there is a reason certain players stay healthy. It is why Jerry Rice only had one serious injury in his career and Ladainian Tomlinson has been able to dominate every season. Rice and Tomlinson are famous for their rigorous off season workout programs which contribute to their ability to stay on the field. Contrast that with someone like Griffey Jr. who was infamous for his lack of off season conditioning and was known as someone who would often not stretch before games. While injuries are sometimes the result of bad luck, they are often a reflection of the player's conditioning, and it is why it is essential that teams place an important value on the skill of durability.

Cowboys 31 Bengals 22-No Moral Victories

I am usually as critical as anyone when it comes to the Bengals, but I was actually excited at several times Sunday, and I believe this team has the potential to have a winning record over its final 11 games. Now, I don't think they will catch fire, but a 6-5 finish is possible if they can play the way they did Sunday. Ultimately, this team needs to eliminate pivotal mistakes and find a way to win games in the fourth quarter. The loss to Dallas was just another example of a game that was winnable and that winning teams find a way to get the job done.

• Last week I said that Marvin Lewis is done in Cincinnati. Well, even though things are not going well, this team is playing hard, and it is up to Lewis to find a way to get them to play 60 minutes of focused football. They are constantly beaten by big plays on defense, and the offense is still way too inconsistent. Sunday was another example of this. Felix Jones ran for a 33 yard touchdown on 4th and 3, and Terrell Owens caught a 57 yard touchdown pass following a Chris Perry fumble. These two plays are heart breaking for a team to give up, especially when it appeared that the momentum had shifted. With the score 17-16 Dallas, Lewis called an on-side kick which caught the Cowboys off guard, and Rashad Jeanty recovered. Momentum was clearly in the Bengals favor, and it looked like they were about to go down and take the lead. Perry's fumble changed all of that, and Owens' touchdown reversed things completely. These are the types of game changing moments that kill the Bengals week after week, and they need to find a way to create those types of plays for their side. Whether its a TJ Houshmandzadeh holding penalty which negated a Perry touchdown, or a too many men in the huddle penalty, or a TJ false start, these little mistakes kill the Bengals all the time. These are things that should be easily correctable, and that is why is it so disconcerting that the Bengals never seem to be able to fix them. Until they do, this team will continue to lose games they should win.
• Chris Perry needs to be benched. There is no debate on this subject. He had only 31 yards on 13 carries, and he fumbled the ball for the fifth time in five games. Perry's lack of ball security is especially crippling given the funk the offense has been in this season. This team cannot afford costly turnovers that eliminate drives and give the opposition great field position. I am not ready to give up on Perry altogether, but he needs to be relegated to third down duties until he proves that he can be trusted with the football on a regular basis. This means that the process of familiarizing Cedric Benson with the playbook needs to be accelerated to give the Bengals another option for an every down back. Benson looked very good in his Cincinnati debut. He wound up with only 30 yards on 10 carries, but he was decisive, ran hard, and punished tacklers at the end of his runs. He looks like he can be the inside runner the Bengals need and would also allow them to use Perry as more of a receiving back and outside runner.
  
• NEWS FLASH: Eric Ghiacuci sucks. He is the major reason this team struggles running the football, as he consistently gets knocked into the backfield. A perfect example came when the Bengals were inside their own five. Ghiacuic was blown out of the way on a running play, leading to a tackle in the backfield, and he was again blown back on third down when the Bengals were running a wide receiver screen. Luckily Palmer was able to get rid of the ball in time, but this team cannot afford to have its center knocked three yards in the backfield on every play. It is time for the Bengals to look at other options at the position, and they must address it in the off season, which they should have done last year.
• For the past few years, the offense has been exciting to watch while the defense had me cussing and throwing things. This year is different. The defense is still not good, but the young players are playing very well and showing flashes that give reason for hope. Keith Rivers only accounted for three tackles, but he forced a fumble and had a very athletic interception on a play that few linebackers in this league could make. He has a presence about him that just oozes of confidence, and he could become the leader this defense has desperately needed for years to come. Marvin White and Chinedum Ndukwe flew around the field all day Sunday, and their athleticism and physicality provide a much needed boost to the defense. They still make some silly mistakes, but they are constantly going at 100 MPH which is a refreshing thing to watch. It certainly eliminates the need for Dexter Jackson, who is too old and too slow, to play a majority of snaps. Leon Hall might be one of the best tackling corners in the league. He again showed his willingness to help out on run defense, and his coverage skills seem to get better every week. With Hall and Jonathan Joseph, the Bengals corner position should be set for awhile. With all of these youngsters making plays, it is time to see what Pat Sims and Jason Shirley can do on the defensive line. They are both rookies, but there is no way that can provide less to the defense than what John Thornton is currently providing. Thornton is outmatched and has been since he arrived here. He is not a part of this team's future, and the time has come to go with a defensive tackle rotation of Peko, Sims, and Shirley. Frostee Rucker is showing people why the Bengals used a third round pick on him a few years back. Finally healthy, Rucker is making plays on the defensive front, and his chase down and strip of Tony Romo on Sunday is the type of play this defense needs more of.
  
• The Bengals offense showed flashes on Sunday, but they are still shooting themselves in the foot too often. Costly penalties and turnovers doom this team, especially when they have to rely on long drives because of the lack of big plays. I don't know what the problem is, but this team is unable to throw the ball deep. A more efficient running game would certainly help, and the return of Chris Henry gives Palmer a legitimate deep threat. They need to find a way to get the safeties to load up in the box, otherwise teams will continue to roll their safeties back into coverage, essentially eliminating the deep ball. Free agent acquisition Ben Utecht also needs to step up his play. The interception on the first play from scrimmage was thrown his way, and it looked like he either did not get his head around in time, or he just did not see the ball. Either way, he needs to make more plays in the middle of the field for this offense to be successful. The two point conversion play when it was 24-22 was also a head scratcher. It was a fade to Utecht who had single coverage on the outside with TJ and Chad lined up on the other side. A fade pass is not a high percentage play anyway, and throwing one to a tight end that cannot go up and get it makes even less sense.
  

Much like the Giants game, this game showed that the Bengals have enough talent to compete with the best in the league. They are not as good as those teams, but they have what it takes to make it a game. If they can find a way to eliminate the turnovers and penalties, they will be able to win these types of games. It is a work in progress, and it is time to let the rest of the young players go at it so they can evaluate them and prepare for 2009. It is never a good thing to be looking to next season in the beginning of October, but I actually believe that this team could be a contender next year with a few tweaks to the roster. It is also important to get the young players experience, or we will be seeing more rookie mistakes next season, and the same results we are seeing this season.

Brian Kelly=Tony Soprano

A little late...this video was for the team entrance v. EKU. Pretty cool if you like the Sopranos, and Brian Kelly is a badass by the way.

Cowboys vs Bengals - America's Team vs America's Most Wanted

Week 5 Picks

Sunday October 5

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit
The Lions will play their first game in the Post Millen Era, but it is hard to see this team changing the direction of the season. Jon Kitna has failed to show any leadership qualities, and Rod Marinelli gets out coached on a weekly basis. Receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson remind me of the duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in Arizona, but they do not have Kurt Warner throwing them the football. The Bears will have a shot to win the NFC North as long as Kyle Orton keeps from turning the ball over at a Rex Grossman-like pace. Rookie running back Matt Forte provides them with most of their offense, and the defense has played well this season and should have a nice day facing the turnover machine that is Jon Kitna. BEARS 24-13.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7.5)
The Seahawks should have Deion Branch and Bobby Engram back this week, but both players are coming off of tough knee injuries and they will have a quarterback with back problems trying to get them the football. Matt Hasselbeck's back should take another beating against a Giants defense that excels at rushing the passer. The Giants will be without star receiver Plaxico Burress who is serving a one game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. It has been rumored that Burress has missed as many as 40-50 meetings over the past couple of seasons which makes his contract extension prior to the season all the more amazing. Still, the Giants are 8-1 over their last nine games, which coincidentally is the same time that Jeremy Shockey has been absent from their line-up. That only loss was last regular season to the Patriots in a shootout. I expect the Giants offense to have a big day even without Burress. GIANTS 34-17.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Denver
The Broncos could be one of the luckiest teams I have seen in quite some time. They are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 if not for some very favorable officiating gaffes. They beat the Chargers thanks to Ed Hochuli's blown call on Jay Cutler's fumble, and the Saints thanks to a missed off-sides call on a New Orleans missed field goal. Denver then allowed Larry Johnson to run wild on them last week, giving the inept Chiefs their first win of the season. This means that their only victory without controversy came in Week 1 over the model franchise of the Oakland Raiders. There is something frisky about this Buccaneers team as they continue to win games without a dominant player on offense. Tampa's defense has played well, and they could create some problems for Cutler who was careless with the football last week. Brian Griese has already gone into Chicago and beaten one of his former teams, now he has the chance to do it again. Of course Griese going for revenge is like chiuaua going after a rottweiler who just stole his bone. BUCCANEERS 27-21.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco
The Patriots will stick with Matt Cassel at quarterback which means that it could be a matter of time before Randy Moss is walking through his routes and alligator-arming balls over the middle. Still, this is a Bill Belichick team coming off of a bye, a week after they were trounced at home by the Dolphins. New England should utilize all three or four of their running backs to wear down the 49ers, and I expect the Pats D to play well, unless San Francisco comes out in the wing T offense like Miami did. I don't know what to make about JT O'Sullivan, but its safe to say that I don't trust him yet, and Belichick will throw numerous looks and blitzes at him to confuse him. The 49ers only chance is for Frank Gore to have a monster game which is possible given that New England's defense moves about as quick as Sam Adams after Thanksgiving dinner. PATRIOTS 23-16.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-6)
The Redskins have been one of the most surprising teams in the league so far, with their only loss coming in week one to the Giants. Since then, it appears that Jim Zorn has taken a class or two on how to be a head coach, and the offense has been opportunistic, plugging away with Clinton Portis and hitting Santana Moss deep. Jason Campbell continues maturing, and he is becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league at throwing the deep ball. It looks like the Eagles will have Brian Westbrook back this week, and that offense plays at a completely different level when he is on the field. Westbrook's health has been a major pain to fantasy owners the past few seasons, as it seems as though there is never a week where his name is listed without the little red cross next to it. He has been the model example of a "game-time decision." This game has all the makings of an Eagles win. Washington is coming off of an emotional win at Dallas, and Philly is coming off of a heart breaking loss at Chicago where they failed to score inside the five as time wound down. Look for a hungry Eagles team and a Redskin team possibly let-down some after last week's big win. EAGLES 30-20.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-10)
The Chiefs won their first game of the season last week, and Herm Edwards lives to fight another day. Edwards job is probably safe for at least the rest of this season anyways, but he does not exude confidence as he strolls the sidelines each week. With Damon Huard at quarterback the team at least has some semblance of an offense, and Larry Johnson is running like a man pissed off right now (which he is). I really like this Panthers team, though, and Jake Delhomme seems to have gained even more arm strength than he had prior to Tommy John surgery. Rookie Jonathan Stewart allows Carolina to control the ball, and Steve Smith gives them a game breaker to exploit defenses when they start to crowd the line. The Chiefs victory celebration is halted at one week as the Panthers pound them in Carolina. PANTHERS 35-14.

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami
The Dolphins bye week provided fans with this terrific nugget of information: Ricky Williams still wants to smoke pot. Really?? No one saw this coming? The guy went and lived in the mountains of Tibet or something like that when he was banished from the NFL a few years back. Is there any wonder that he still has the desire to blaze up? Dolphins' fans can relax, however, because Ricky now turns to meditation to ease his mind. Just what every fan wants, a running back who is more of a hippie than a headache for opposing defenses. On the other side, it looks like Ladanian Tomlinson might finally be starting to find his groove which presents all kinds of match-up problems for the Dolphins. It will be interesting to see if Norv Turner uses Tomlinson and lightning-quick Darren Sproles at the same time to possibly open things up for Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, and Vincent Jackson in the passing game. Regardless, San Diego's defense needs to find a way to stop someone if this team wants to fulfill its Super Bowl dreams. This week should not provide them with much of a problem though. CHARGERS 38-20.

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3)
I am not convinced that the Colts are just going to turn things on the same way that they do every other year. Peyton Manning seems to really be struggling with his mobility, and Marvin Harrison looks like he has lost three of four steps. Combine that with the fact that Bob Sanders has the durability of a china doll, and the Colts could be in for a long season. The Texans finally showed some spunk last week despite losing to Jacksonville 30-27 in overtime. Matt Schaub had his best outing of the year, throwing for 307 yards, and rookie running back Steve Slaton has been electrifying and dynamic in his first NFL season. I got to watch Slaton the past two years at WVU, and the guy has amazing breakaway ability. He has a knack for slipping off of defenders and then beating everyone to the end zone. It is certainly a change from the corpse of Ahman Green struggling to make it through the hole with his worn out body. I expect the Texans to pick up their first win of the season in a game most people would consider an upset. TEXANS 23-20.

Tennessee (-3) @ Baltimore
The Titans look like the best team in the league right now, even though I never thought I would say that about a team with Kerry Collins at the helm. There are not enough adjectives to describe the man crush I have on Chris Johnson, and Jeff Fisher keeps pushing all the right buttons to keep this team in sync. The defense has to remain the most impressive part of this team, and this could be a game that is settled on field goals. The Ravens are another team that is led by its defense, and Ray Lewis looks like he found the fountain of youth with the way he is flying around on the field. Ultimately, I think this game will come down to Joe Flacco making more mistakes than Collins, as the rookie quarterback will have his hands full against this stingy defense. I will go ahead and say six Rob Bironas field goals to three for Matt Stover. TITANS 18-9.

Buffalo (+1.5) @ Arizona
The Cardinals lost a wild shootout last week to the Jets 56-35. More importantly, Anquan Boldin was knocked unconscious during the game, and he will be out this week against the Bills. Without Boldin, Arizona will rely even more on Larry Fitzgerald and hope that Steve Breaston helps to pick up the slack in place of Boldin. It would also help if Kurt Warner holds on to the football which helped to doom the Cardinals last week. Warner accounted for six turnovers on his own against the Jets, and he has a history of being carefree when it comes to ball security. This will be extra important against a very good Bills defense that should be able to get after Warner for much of the game. Trent Edwards is another young quarterback that is starting to blossom, thanks to the running game of Marshawn Lynch, and the big play ability of Lee Evans. Buffalo might not be the best team in the league, but they are good, and their schedule sets up for a possible cake walk to the AFC East title. They will just need to avoid potential slip ups like the one waiting for them in Arizona. BILLS 28-23.

Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17)
Normally I write a separate post to break down the Bengals game each week, but with the way this season is going, what's the point? If Cincinnati wants any chance, here is the key to victory: Hope that the Cowboys pre game meal is laced with Terrell Owens' anti-depressants. Hey, it could happen. In reality, the Cowboys are coming off of a loss to the Redskins last week which means there is little chance of them overlooking the Bengals. There is the possibility that Terrell Owens will continue his crying and disrupt the rest of the team, but I don't think there is any damage Owens could do that would make this team lose on Sunday. COWBOYS 37-14.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4)
This is another game that could be a slug fest as the two defenses should control most of the action. The Steelers are beaten up badly on offense and will be without Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable with a sprained shoulder, and he gets beaten up week after week thanks to the porous Steeler offensive line. The Jaguars are 2-2 thanks to Josh Scobee who booted a last second field goal against the Colts and an overtime field goal against the Texans. Jacksonville had very high hopes coming into this year, but they are only a few plays away from being 0-4 right now. I don't know what to make of this Jaguars team. They are either not as good as everyone thought they would be, or they have just caught opponents on the wrong weeks. Their schedule has done them no favors, as they have already played Buffalo, Tennessee, Indy, and Houston. Now they might have caught their first break in the season facing a Steelers team that is nowhere near full strength. I think the injuries are the difference in this one as Pittsburgh just does not have enough firepower to win this week. JAGUARS 24-17.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7)
Aaron Rodgers may not be able to go in this one after injuring his throwing shoulder last week. If he cannot go, the Packers will be forced to rely on rookies Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm to lead the offense. It does not help matters that Ryan Grant looks nothing like the player we saw last year, and Al Harris' injury leaves the defense vulnerable in the passing game. They get a good matchup, however, against rookie Matt Ryan. Ryan has played well for a rookie, but this Falcons team seems to be a completely different team on the road compared to at home. Atlanta will need big days from Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood if they want to win, otherwise the Packers should be able to create enough on offense to move to 3-2. An X-factor could be Roddy White who has played well with Ryan and is probably thankful that he finally has a quarterback that doesn't throw every ball either 20 feet over his head or 20 feet short. PACKERS 26-13.

Monday October 6

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3.5)
The Vikings continued to struggle last week, falling 30-17 to the Titans which dropped them to 1-3. They have no real threat at wide receiver, and defenses recognize this, stacking eight and nine men in the box against Adrian Peterson. Peterson has still run hard, averaging over five yards a carry, but he could start wearing down if the offense does not find another option. The Saints have been lighting up the scoreboard this year, and Drew Brees has been the best quarterback in the league. Unfortunately, this team cannot stop anyone, so the Saints are in for a shootout every week. New Orleans has been a very good home team under Sean Payton, and I think this plays a big role this week. They just need to contain Peterson who should have a big day running inside against a lackluster defense. If the Saints can limit his big plays, this game should not be close. SAINTS 31-21.

LAST WEEK (OVERALL): 7-6
LAST WEEK (ATS): 8-5
SEASON (OVERALL): 37-23
SEASON (ATS): 32-27-1

My Presidential Endorsement

I don't use this space for politics much, but with the general election a month away, I decided who I want to be the next President. Barack Obama and John McCain do not do anything for me, and I am tired of all politicians and their policies. I think it is time this country looks to a different field to choose its leader, and I have the perfect candidate.
Bill Belichick. I can't stand the man, but I respect him. He knows how to win, and he is the head coach of the model franchise in the NFL right now. Here are some other characteristics that make him perfect for the job:

• Three-time Super Bowl winner who continually gets more out of his players than any of the other coaches in the league. With America struggling in several different areas, Belichick would be perfect to maximize the output of the people running those departments.
• Manages to have his team in a constant state of salary cap safety which seems to be one of the most difficult things to do in the present day NFL. Yet, he puts his money into players who are under-appreciated elsewhere, and he makes sure that the Pats manage the salary cap wisely. With the economy struggling, and a recession looming, he would be the perfect man to take this country's economy by the throat and get it to straighten out. Lenders and other executives that have put the economy in trouble would have to step into Mr. Belichick's office to receive their collective pink slips. Plus, he did major in economics in college, so he has that going for him, which is nice.
  
• Belichick would be great at dealing with foreign leaders. Have you ever seen one of his press conferences? It looks like his eyes could melt every reporter in the room. He could take that demeanor into any office around the world and have even the most corrupt leader shaking in their boots. Although, he would probably have to dress a little un-Presidential to get the job done (->).
• Everyone knows that the President is going to have to bend the rules every once in awhile in the best interest of American citizens. Well, Belichick is perfect at doing that. Whether its listing Tom Brady on the injury report every week for the past few seasons, or spying on the opposition, he knows how to get things done. Hell, he already took part in Spygate which, if you watched ESPN at all during that time, was at least as big as any Presidential "gate" that has happened in our country's history, and Belichick's explanation (a misunderstanding of the rules) was much better than any explanation a President has given when they get caught.
  
• He has already earned the respect of Randy Moss which has to be tougher than earning the respect of someone like Kim Jong II.
• Lastly, he is already familiar with the White House. He has already visited three times and probably knows his way around Pennsylvania Avenue better than McCain or Obama.

Maybe Paul Brown is Really to Blame

I have always believed that Mike Brown got his "family first" mentality from his father, and as beloved as Paul Brown is in Cincinnati, I believe he would be a colossal failure if he were an owner in the NFL today. Perhaps the ground work for what is the biggest joke of a franchise in professional sports truly was laid by Paul, not Mike, Brown.

"Enter Bill Walsh, the 47-year-old head coach at Stanford University, a man who had never steered an NFL team. The book explains how the new coach arrived with a whiff of peculiarity.

He had made his professional reputation with the Cincinnati Bengals from 1968 through 1975 under the tutelage of his mentor, the legendary Paul Brown. Mr. Walsh blossomed with the Bengals and it was widely assumed that Mr. Brown was grooming him for the head coaching slot.

But that didn't happen. Not only did Mr. Brown snub Mr. Walsh, he actively bad-mouthed him when the coach left to pursue other NFL opportunities. Mr. Harris suggests that perhaps Mr. Brown became jealous of his protégé. Because of Mr. Brown's august status and his failure to appoint Mr. Walsh as his successor, football people assumed something must have been wrong with him. Mr. Walsh instead left the NFL to coach Stanford to respectability in the always tough Pac-10 conference."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122278676234790383.html

NFL First Quarter Report: By the Fives

We are through the first quarter of games for most of the teams in the league, so let's take a look at how things stack up so far;

TOP 5 TEAMS
1. Tennessee (4-0) 102 Points For; 46 Points Against: The Titans have the best defense in the league, allowing only 11 ppg. Albert Haynesworth is the beast that drives the defense, and coach Jeff Fisher has Kerry Collins managing the games effectively on offense. Throw in the home run threat that rookie Chris Johnson gives them out of the backfield and the Titans will be tough to beat.
2. New York Giants (3-0) 83 PF; 43 PA: The defending Super Bowl champs have come out of the gate hot, but there is some turmoil brewing in the Big Apple. Plaxico Burress received a two week suspension for missing team meetings, and this is troubling considering that the Giants gave him a hefty extension prior to the season. Tom Coughlin has a tough task to keep this team focused the rest of the way.
3. Dallas (3-1) 120 PF; 89 PA: The Cowboys looked like the team to beat until last week's loss at home to Washington. Marion Barber only had eight carries, and rookie Felix Jones did not have a touch on offense in the loss. Terrell Owens was complaining about a lack of touches after the game, and it could be a matter of time before he goes into full tantrum mode.
4. Philadelphia (2-2) 110 PF; 74 PA: The Eagles dropped a close one to Chicago on Sunday night, but they were without Brian Westbrook who is recovering from an ankle injury. When Westbrook is healthy, the Eagles have proven to be one of the best in the league, and rookie D'Sean Jackson gives Donovan McNabb the deep threat he has so desperately needed.
5. Carolina (3-1) 80 PF; 70 PA: The Panthers have some tough wins in the early season, and the return of Steve Smith the past two weeks gives them an offensive play maker who is tough to stop. Rookie Jonathan Stewart adds a power runner to the mix, and John Fox has this team poised to make a playoff push.

BOTTOM 5 TEAMS
32. St. Louis (0-4) 43 PF; 147 PA:Scott Linehan is out and Jim Haslett is in. This is the same Jim Haslett who has coordinated the defense which has allowed 147 thus far. This is a team that gets blown out every week and needs more than a coaching change to turn things around.
31. Cincinnati (0-4) 52 PF; 87 PA: Since you should already know how I feel about this organization, here are my thoughts on the Cedric Benson signing. At first, I had the same reaction as most, which was shock. I thought it was a wasted signing that will only bring more shame to the team. After I thought about it, I don't mind it nearly as much. Benson was the fourth overall pick and showed flashes of good inside running ability with the Bears. Kenny Watson and DeDe Dorsey are hurt for the Bengals, so they had to make a move to get a running back. Why not take a flier on Benson? I am more worried about the rumors of his being a poor teammate than I am about his off the field issues. He could provide a push in the running game, and if not, he is gone at the end of the season anyways. For those of you who wanted Shaun Alexander, NO! Alexander is 31 years old and has run as soft as anyone in the league the past two years. He was the beneficiary of running behind Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson for all those years in Seattle, but there are plenty of reasons why no one wants him on their team right now.
30. Detroit (0-3) 59 PF; 113 PA: Lions fans can rejoice because the Matt Millen Era is finally over. Whether or not that makes any difference for a totally inept franchise is yet to be seen. Last time I checked Jon Kitna was still the quarterback and Rod Marinelli was still the coach.
29. Oakland (1-3) 78 PF; 101 PA: The Raiders have actually played ok since they were destroyed in the Monday night opener against the Broncos, but after watching that Al Davis press conference yesterday, there is no way I could put them any higher on the list. Davis actually seemed lucid and under control despite the fact that he looked like the Crypt Keeper's long lost twin. I actually tend to believe him over Lane Kiffin who seems more and more like a sneaky little weasel each day.
28. Cleveland (1-3) 46 PF; 78 PA: The Browns lone win is against the Bengals, so that should get thrown out the window. Derek Anderson just flat out is not any good. He was on fire the first half of last season, but he struggled down the stretch, and he is off to a terrible start to this season. I really cannot see this team winning more than five games this year, but everyone can take solace in the fact that they will be on national television four more times. YIPPEE!

Top 5 MVP

1. Drew Brees QB New Orleans: Brees has been on the money so far this season, compiling 1,343 yards, eight touchdowns, and a QB rating of 106.9. What is even more amazing is that he has done this without his favorite target Marques Colston. Brees will have to continue to play well if New Orleans wants any shot at the post season because the defense down there cannot stop anyone.
2. Albert Haynesworth DT Tennessee: There might not be another player in the league that has a bigger impact on his side of the ball than Haynesworth. He is an absolute monster in the middle, racking up 5 sacks already.
3. Jay Cutler QB Denver: Cutler is the main reason the Broncos are the surprise of the league at 3-1. He has 1,275 yards and nine touchdowns so far, and he has led his team to three shootout victories. Much like Brees, Cutler's defense cannot stop anyone, so his shoulder should be sore come winter.
4. Clinton Portis RB Washington: The Redskins are also a big surprise, sitting at 3-1 and in 2nd place of the ridiculous NFC East. Portis is one of the best all around backs in the league, and his play has helped reduce the pressure on young quarterback Jason Campbell. Portis can run and catch, but his blocking might be the thing that puts him at the head of the pack.
5. Adrian Peterson RB Minnesota; It is amazing how good this kid is. The Vikings have absolutely no threat in the passing game, and opposing defenses continue to stack 8 or 9 men in the box. Despite all of this, Peterson is still averaging 5.1 yards/carry and is the only offensive threat Minnesota has. At 1-3 the Vikings are in trouble, but if they can turn things around, it will likely be Peterson's doing which would be enough to push him to the top of this list.

Top 5 Rookie RBS: With such a great rookie crop of running backs, it is amazing to think that they guy who could become the best in the league in a few seasons is only fourth on my list of guys in his class, and the most explosive rookie RB doesn't even make the list (Felix Jones).

1. Chris Johnson RB Tennessee
2. Matt Forte RB Chicago
3. Steve Slaton RB Houston
4. Darren McFadden RB Oakland
5. Jonathan Stewart RB Carolina

Top 5 Coaches:

1. Jeff Fisher, Tennessee
2. Jim Zorn, Washington
3. Dick Jauron, Buffalo
4. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants
5. John Fox, Carolina

Top 5 Grizzled Quarterbacks:

1. Brett Favre, NYJ
2. Kurt Warner, ARZ
3. Kerry Collins, TEN
4. Jeff Garcia/Brian Griese, TB
5. TIE: Gus Frerotte MIN & Jon Kitna, DET.