Week 6 Picks

Sunday, October 12

Oakland @ New Orleans (-7)
The Saints are coming off of a devastating loss last Monday night to Minnesota in which they did everything but gift wrap the game to the Vikings. New Orleans held Adrian Peterson to 32 yards on 21 carries and had two touchdowns off of Reggie Bush punt returns but still found a way to blow it in the end. Kevin Kaesviharn committed a bad pass interference penalty with under two minutes to go deep in Saints territory that set up Ryan Longwell's game winning field goal. The Saints were the favorite of many experts to win the NFC South prior to the season, but their sloppy play has already cost them two winnable games, the other being a loss in Denver. At 2-3 this is a game New Orleans has to have if they want any shot of winning their division. This will be the first game of the Tom Cable era in Oakland, and I doubt that the results will be much different from his predecessor, Lane Kiffin. Oakland should be able to put up some point on this New Orleans team, but I think Drew Brees will have a big day, and the Saints offense should be enough to cover the spread. SAINTS 34-21.

Baltimore (+4) @ Indianapolis
Last week is a perfect example of why I do not put money on the NFL anymore. I had the Texans beating the Colts, and everything looked golden until Sage Rosenfels decided to do his best Superman impression, diving through the air while trying to pick up a first down. Unfortunately he fumbled, and the Colts returned it for a touchdown. Another Rosenfels fumble on the next possession led to the Colts third touchdown in four minutes and one of the more improbable comebacks of recent memory. This Colts victory does not have me fooled. They are not very good this year, and they should be 0-4 right now instead of 2-2. Their only other win came against Minnesota in a game that the Vikings dominated for three quarters, but failed to punch the ball into the end zone. The Ravens, on the other hand, lost to the undefeated Titans in the last minutes of a game controlled by the two defenses. Baltimore's defense should have their way against the sputtering Indy offense, and look for Le'Ron McClain to run through the porous Colts defense. RAVENS 23-17.

Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets
Call me crazy, but I think this is the week the Bengals get their first victory, led by their up and coming defense. Cincinnati has gotten solid play out of rookie linebacker Keith Rivers, and the young secondary of Leon Hall, Jonathan Joseph, Chinedum Ndukwe, and Marvin White should be able to make some plays on errant Brett Favre throws. The Bengals offense has yet to find any consistency, but newly acquired Cedric Benson provides them with the power running threat the team has missed following Rudi Johnson's departure. The Jets have also started this season relatively inconsistent, although Favre did throw for six touchdowns two weeks ago. Coming off of a bye, the Jets will be well rested, but there is a chance that they overlook the 0-5 Bengals. In a season filled with surprises, I expect the Bengals to go into East Rutherford and find their first win. BENGALS 24-21.

Carolina (+1.5) @ Tampa Bay
The Panthers may be one of the best teams in the NFC, and no one seems to have taken notice to their fast start. Their defense is playing better than it has in the past few years, and the offense is putting up points thanks in large part to the success of their running game. Rookie Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams provide Carolina with a nice one-two punch that creates problems for opposing defenses. Williams ran for 123 yards and had three total touchdowns in last week's 34-0 beatdown of the Chiefs, and Stewart has quietly emerged as one of the top rookie running backs in the league. Combine the running game with the big play ability of Steve Smith, and the Panthers have one of the more dangerous offenses in the NFL. Jon Gruden's quarterback roulette may have finally caught up with him as Brian Griese was knocked out of last week's 16-13 loss in Denver. Gruden will now turn to Jeff Garcia again, and it will be interesting to see how Garcia responds after being benched only a few weeks back. Gruden should have never went away from Garcia as the veteran QB has proven he has what it takes to get his teams into the playoffs. If Tampa wants any chance of winning this game, they will need a big day from Earnest Graham on the ground, and their defense will have to step up against Carolina's offense. I expect another efficient game by Stewart and Williams, and one or two big plays to Smith which will put them over the top. PANTHERS 20-16.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5)
Normally I would never, ever lay two touchdowns on a team led by Gus Frerotte, but this is a special circumstance. The Lions are absolutely terrible, having fallen behind 31-0, 21-3, 21-0, and 21-0 in their four losses. Detroit's offense is getting nothing out of Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson, thanks to the horrific play of their quarterbacks, and their defense has yet to show any resistance against opposing offenses. Adrian Peterson should have a field day in the one. VIKINGS 31-13.

Chicago (-3) @ Atlanta
The Falcons showed the rest of the league that they might be for real last week, going into Green Bay and beating the Packers 27-24. Matt Ryan has proven that he was worth the #3 pick in the draft, and Michael Turner continues to chew up defenses with a combination of power and speed that few backs in the league possess. Atlanta has played especially well at home, and they will have a chance this week to go to 4-2 which would match their win total for the entire 2007 season. The Bears will also be looking to go to 4-2, and they have had quality play at the quarterback position from an unexpected source as well. Kyle Orton threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns last week, giving him 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns for the season to go against only two interceptions. Rookie running back Matt Forte has been the perfect compliment to Orton, and Chicago's defense is again playing like one of the top 10 defenses in the league. This game is essentially a coin flip for me, but I think the Bears D will make things difficult for Ryan, and Forte will provide enough on offense to get the win. BEARS 28-17.

Miami @ Houston (-3)
Speaking of coin flips, this is another game that I honestly have no idea on. The Texans are too good to be 0-4 right now, and last week's loss to Indy is the type of loss that could ruin an entire season. With Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson, Houston has big play threats on offense, and Mario Williams continues to dominate on the defensive side of the ball. Williams already has five sacks this season as he continues to make the Texans brass look smart for passing on Reggie Bush. The Dolphins have two very quality wins under the belt, winning in New England and in San Diego. Their "Wildcat" formation is causing all kinds of headaches for opposing defensive coordinators, and Ronnie Brown looks like he has already completely recovered from last year's ACL surgery. I think this is the week that the Wildcat formation hits its first speed bumps, and Matt Schaub will not give away the game the way Sage Rosenfels did last week. TEXANS 30-23.

St. Louis (+14) @ Washington
I have no rhyme or reason for this selection, but I think that the Rams will react well to Jim Haslett taking over. Haslett's first move as head coach was to give the starting quarterback job back to Marc Bulger, and I think the Rams will play much better on offense from here on out. The Redskins are 4-1, and look like one of the best teams in football. Clinton Portis is playing like an MVP, and Jason Campbell has yet to throw an interception this season. They are coming off of two huge wins in Dallas and Philadelphia, and this would be a prime spot for a bit of a let down. I still think Washington wins, but this game will be closer than anyone expects, with the 'Skins pulling away in the fourth quarter. REDSKINS 27-20.

Need to get some sleep, so here are the rest of my picks:

Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Denver
Philadelphia (-6) @ San Francisco
Dallas @ Arizona (+6)
Green Bay (+3) @ Seattle
New England @ San Diego (-5)
New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland

LAST WEEK (Overall): 6-8
LAST WEEK (ATS): 5-8-1
SEASON (Overall): 43-31
SEASON (ATS): 37-35-2