The Injury Skill Factor

I was listening to a Bill Simmons podcast the other week, and he was saying some things that I have been arguing for some time now. It is the fact that you have to account for a player's durability when evaluating his talent level. At some point, injuries are not just the product of bad luck, they are a skill that some players can manage and some cannot. The interesting and difficult task is determining how much a player's durability is factored in when evaluating him on the whole. This topic is of extra sensitivity to Cincinnati fans who have had to deal with Ken Griffey Jr. and Chris Perry over the past decade. It will also play a vital role this baseball off season as the Reds try to determine what to do with their outfield. Do they bring back Jerry Hairston Jr. who provided a spark to the line up in 2008? Can they feel comfortable with Hairston or Ryan Freel penciled into their starting line up for 2009? Here is a quick rundown of each player's durability and why the Reds should look at other options for next season:

Jerry Hairston Jr.

• Has played over 120 games in a season only twice and not since 2002.
• Since 2002 has played in 58, 86, 114, 101, 73, and 80 games.
• Had career year in 2008 despite playing in only 80 games. Hit .326 with .871 OPS, had second most RBIs in his career and third most stolen bases.

Now, knowing all of that and the fact that Hairston is 32 years old, do you bring him back next season if you are the Reds? I might if the price is right, but there is no way you can expect more than half a season of work out of him as his career has dictated. You also cannot expect a repeat of his 2008 numbers. 2008 was a career year, and as he gets older there is no reason to expect similar results.

Ryan Freel

• Let me preface this by saying that I have never been a big Ryan Freel fan because I just don't think he is that talented to begin with. That being said, he can play several positions which provides valuable depth to whatever team he is on.
• From '04-'06 played an average of 126 games/season and hit .277, .271, .271 respectively.
• Played only 75 games in '07 and 48 games in '08 while seeing his OPS drop from the .740s to under .700.
• Has only stolen 21 bases the last two seasons combined after averaging 37 stolen bases over the previous three seasons.

Freel is someone who many Cincinnati fans have gotten behind because of his hustle, but the fact remains that his hustle is often reckless and gets him injured way too much. This is a factor that has to be considered when evaluating Freel. Again, it is a reason why you cannot pencil him in as a starter going forward, and it is a reason why his best role is as a utility man off the bench.

This is just one example of how a player's durability can affect important roster decisions. It should always play a role in evaluating a player's value over their career. Brett Favre might be a diva, but one cannot argue with the fact that he has been able to start every game over the past 16 seasons. Aaron Rodgers is hurt again this season, after getting hurt in limited action in the past. Rodgers appears to have all of the necessary skills to be a successful NFL quarterback, but if he cannot stay on the field, it does the Packers no good. The same can be said about Ken Griffey Jr. and his stay in Cincinnati. I heard so many fans say that you can't blame him for getting hurt and that his swing was still one of the best in baseball. That might all be true, and I would not necessary blame him for his injuries, but it has to be taken into consideration when determining his play. What good is his swing if he is always hurt? It is a delicate balance that general managers have to weigh when putting together a roster. A player might be one of the best in the game when healthy, but how much do you invest in that player if he is injury prone? It is seen all over the place in sports. Ben Sheets is considered an ace pitcher by most, but how can someone be an ace if they serve multiple stints on the disabled list year after year? To me, an ace is someone who will give you 200+ innings year after year. It is someone who will take the ball every fifth day and give his team a great chance of winning. This is what makes someone like Roy Halladay so valuable. Yes, he has electric stuff, but he also goes deep into every game he pitches as evidenced by the fact that he has thrown 220+ innings in five of the last seven seasons. Even the two seasons where he had minor injuries, Halladay still started in 19 and 21 games.

This is what makes the Bengals' decision to go with Chris Perry as the #1 back an odd one. He played in only 2 games in 2004, 14 in '05, 6 in '06, and missed all of 2007. This is just bad roster management to go with someone as your feature running back when he has never shown the ability to stay healthy. It is especially risky given that NFL running backs take a beating week after week. Perry has been healthy so far this season, but he has yet to really show the burst that he did three years ago. Putting large investments in injury riddled players can hamstring teams because they will be hesitant to move on from these players because of the money they make and the fear that they will move on somewhere else and turn into the player that everyone thought they would be. At the end of the day, there is a reason certain players stay healthy. It is why Jerry Rice only had one serious injury in his career and Ladainian Tomlinson has been able to dominate every season. Rice and Tomlinson are famous for their rigorous off season workout programs which contribute to their ability to stay on the field. Contrast that with someone like Griffey Jr. who was infamous for his lack of off season conditioning and was known as someone who would often not stretch before games. While injuries are sometimes the result of bad luck, they are often a reflection of the player's conditioning, and it is why it is essential that teams place an important value on the skill of durability.