And Here We......GO

Week one of the NFL Season is upon us, and here are my picks for week 1 (Bengals pick coming later).

Thursday, September 4:
Washington @ New York Giants (-4.5)
The Giants suffered the loss of Michael Strahan to retirement and Osi Umenyiora to a torn ACL, but they return all eleven starters on offense. A key for their season will be whether Eli Manning plays like the man we saw in the post season, or if he reverts to regular season Eli where he is mediocre. Also, can Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiawanuka get consistent pressure without the help of two Pro Bowl defensive ends? I look for Antonio Pierce to play a big role in blitzing to help apply pressure to Jason Campbell who is coming off an injury of his own. Washington has a rookie head coach in Jim Zorn, which means yet another offense for Campbell and the 'Skins to learn. I look for Manning and Burress to carry the offense while the defense shuts down Clinton Portis and Campbell. GIANTS 27-13.

Sunday, September 7:
New York Jets (-3) @ Miami
Favre mania is running wild in New York, and the Jets need to start fast in order to put their dismal 2007 behind them. The Jets also acquired Alan Faneca and Damien Woody in the off season, and this should help bolster Thomas Jones and the running game. Miami is in year one of their Bill Parcells era, and the addition of Chad Pennington at quarterback should give them a little stability on offense. A rejuvenated Ricky Williams could have a comeback year and help the Dolphins gain some success this year. I expect Favre, Coles, and Cotchery to have big weeks as the Jets blow open the game in the second half. JETS 24-17.

Houston (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh
The Texans have become the sleeper team of 2008 for many, but they will have to endure playing in the most difficult division in football. They will have to rely on Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Owen Daniels to carry the offense since Ahman Green is on his last leg, and rookie Steve Slaton in unproven. Mario Williams will anchor the defense, and he is showing people why he was the number one pick over Reggie Bush. The Steelers will have to overcome a weak offensive line, but Santonio Holmes is on track for a breakout season. With Willie Parker and rookie Rashard Mendenhall behind him, Ben Roethlisberger could have another Pro Bowl year. It all depends on the play of their offensive line. Expect the Steelers defense to be, well, the Steelers defense. I expect this one to be close, decided by a late Jeff Reed field goal. STEELERS 20-17.

Jacksonville (-3) @ Tennessee
The Jaguars will be looking to dethrone the Colts reign atop the AFC South this season, and they could be a contender for the AFC crown. With the powerhouse of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield, and the continued development of David Garrard at quarterback, the Jags offense should be in for big things this season. Jacksonville did lose Marcus Stroud on defense, and first round pick Derrick Harvey just recently got into camp. That being said, they will be facing an anemic Tennessee offense which is still waiting for Vince Young to figure it out. The Titans will rely on Lendale White and rookie Chris Johnson to be a thunder and lightning type of combo, and their defense will still be strong, led by Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch. This game could be a low scoring affair, with the Jags able to produce more than the Titans in the end. JAGUARS 20-10.

Detroit (-3) @ Atlanta
This match up could be surprisingly appealing. The Lions offense will be looking for bigger and better things from Calvin Johnson whose rookie season was underwhelming due to a back injury. Johnson has looked terrific all preseason, and he should be the beneficiary of the Lions' new offense. With Mike Martz gone, the Lions will not be running as much three and four wide as they have in the past, and this should pay off with big seasons for Johnson and Roy Williams, who is in a contract year. Expect to see less of Mike Furrey and Sean McDonald and more of Johnson and Williams in the end zone. Detroit has also revamped its running game with rookie Kevin Smith and newly acquired Rudi Johnson. Jon Kitna's overall numbers might be down in this offense, but it should be more efficient and effective. The Falcons have a new face of the franchise in first round pick Matt Ryan. Ryan will look for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood to shoulder the load on offense. New head coach Mike Smith will look to implement the toughness and intensity his Jaguars' defenses displayed to the Falcons side of the ball. Atlanta is certainly still rebuilding, but it looks as though things are beginning to move in the right direction. LIONS 28-20.

Seattle @ Buffalo (-1)
The Seahawks said goodbye to the Shaun Alexander era, and hello to a running back-by-committee. Seattle signed Julius Jones and TJ Duckett in the off season, and they intend to use those two with Maurice Morris to give them a varied look in the backfield. Matt Hasselbeck will need all the help he can get because Deion Branch and Bobby Engram are injured, leaving Nate Burleson as the only proven receiver available. The Bills will be another team relying on its ground game, as Marshawn Lynch showed promise as a rookie last season. Buffalo's quarterback situation is still shaky. Trent Edwards will start, but he has yet to prove himself over a full season. The Bills defense should be solid, led by Donte Whitner at safety, and free agent acquisition Marcus Stroud up front. This should be a low scoring affair, and I look for the Bills to pull it out at home. BILLS 17-13.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (PK)
The Bucs won the division last season, but the Saints were in the NFC title game the year before. New Orleans might be one of the more frustrating teams around, given that no one knows what to expect from them on a week-to-week basis. The Saints did obtain Jeremy Shockey who should flourish in Sean Payton's offense. Marques Colston is on the brink of becoming one of the elite receivers in the league, and if Duce McAllister can return and stay healthy, the Saints should have one of the better offenses in football. Tampa continues to win with grizzled veteran Jeff Garcia at the helm, and ancient receiver Joey Galloway catching his passes. Earnest Graham appeared out of nowhere to lead the team in rushing last season, and he can provide stability in their backfield this season if he can stay healthy. There is a good chance that the division winner will come down to these two teams again, so this is a pivotal week one contest. Expect the Saints to take care of business at home with a loud crowd behind them due to the near miss of Hurricane Gustav. SAINTS 31-27.

St. Louis @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
The Rams are coming off a disastrous 2007 during which Steven Jackson and Marc Bulger missed significant time with injuries. Jackson is healthy, and freshly paid, and he will be central as to whether or not the Rams have any success this year. First round pick Chris Long will try and bolster a defense that had problems stopping anyone last season. If the defense improves, and Bulger can remain upright, the Rams could be respectable this year (not likely). The Eagles might be the second best team in the NFC East this season, thanks in large part to the multi-talented Brian Westbrook. Westbrook can do it all, and he takes an enormous amount of pressure off of Donovan McNabb. McNabb's receiving core has been decimated by injuries this preseason, and rookie WR DeSean Jackson could be the beneficiary of those injuries. Jackson possesses blazing speed, and McNabb will have to throw the ball to someone, so why not Jackson. If the Rams can get Steven Jackson established on the ground, this game could remain close, if not, not so much. EAGLES 34-20.

Dallas (-6) @ Cleveland
Count me in as someone who thinks the Browns are overrated, and as someone who thinks the Cowboys have the best team in the NFL. The Browns acquired Donte Stallworth to help bolster their already strong passing game, but I am not yet sold on Derek Anderson for a full season. I am also skeptical as to whether or not Jamal Lewis can stay healthy and repeat his 2007. Shaun Rogers will be relied upon to stiffen up a weak defensive line, but Rogers has had problems in the past with staying in shape and staying motivated. The Browns will have Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow who are both studs, but that won't be enough against an uber-talented Cowboys team. Tony Romo is coming off a breakthrough season for the 'boys, and there is no reason to doubt that he will do it again. He has a wide assortment of weapons in Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and Jason Witten, as well as Marion Barber, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice in the running game. Dallas is almost as strong on defense, where newly reinstated Adam Jones could flourish. Jones, along with DeMarcus Ware, Roy Williams, and Terrance Newman, provides Dallas with a defense full of play makers. This game could be a wake up call to Browns fans everywhere. COWBOYS 35-17.

Carolina (+9) @ San Diego
The Panthers will be without star WR Steve Smith for the first two games, after he laid the smack down on teammate Ken Lucas during training camp. Carolina might also be without DJ Hackett who is recovering from an ankle injury. Even with the Panthers' injury situation, the Chargers have question marks of their own. First, Shawne Merriman is playing with two torn ligaments in his knee, against the orders of every doctor he has visited. Second, Philip Rivers and LaDanian Tomlinson are coming off injuries of their own, and there are no assurances that they will be clicking on all cylinders at the start of the season. Third, Tomlinson's stud back-up Michael Turner is now in Atlanta where he will be the main man. And fourth, Antonio Gates is coming off of a serious toe injury, and no one knows if he will be back to his normal self. So, despite all those injuries, the Bolts are still somehow a nine point favorite in week one. I like San Diego to win, but not to cover. CHARGERS 24-21.

Arizona (-2.5) @ San Francisco
Every year is supposed to be the year the Cardinals breakout and win the NFC West. Well, everyone is still waiting for that to happen, and Kurt Warner still finds himself at quarterback for Arizona. Warner got the job after Matt Leinart imploded towards the end of the preseason. Leinart has had everything questioned from his arm strength to his work ethic, and he has yet to show that he can handle the pressure. Warner still has two tremendous wideouts to get the ball to in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but Arizona's O-Line is not so steady, and Warner is an injury waiting to happen. Even with all of that going on, the Cardinals seem incredibly stable compared to the 49ers. The Niners will start JT O'Sullivan at quarterback (and you thought that was the local sports bar), and he will rely heavily on Frank Gore to carry the ball at least twenty times a game. If Gore is ineffective, the Niners offense goes from bad to invisible. San Francisco also overspent for defensive end Justin Smith in the off season (I don't hold any grudges or anything). Smith plays short-armed, and his only move, the bull rush, rarely reaches the quarterback. In the end, this is a game between two bad teams with the Niners being just a little bit worse. CARDINALS 20-9.

Chicago @ Indianapolis (-10)
The Colts are coming off of a roller coaster off season during which Peyton Manning had knee surgery, Marvin Harrison was investigated in a shooting, and Dwight Freeney continues to recover. Manning has declared himself ready to go for week one, and he has returned to practice, but he has yet to take a snap from center this preseason which should raise some concerns, especially with center Jeff Saturday out for at least six weeks. Harrison also appears to be healthy, but there is a chance that a shooting in Philadelphia where his Belgian pistols and his car wash were involved could re-surface at any time. It has conveniently disappeared for the time being, and Harrison may very well prove to be the Godfather of the NFL. Indy still has Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez which should provide Peyton with more than enough weapons to choose from once things get rolling. The Bears, on the other hand, have Kyle Orton at quarterback, Matt Forte at running back, and a handful of no name receivers. Even with all of Indy's question marks, this game has blow out written all over it, and I expect the Colts to cover the ten. COLTS 30-13.

Kansas City @ New England
The line is currently crossed out for this game, and I am guessing that is due to the Tom Brady injury situation. It appeared to be 17 earlier, and I would take the position to lay whatever points are given and take the Pats because, quite frankly, the Chiefs suck. Brady may have a cracked bone in his foot, but that is not going to make him miss any time. He should be able to hit things off with his favorite target Randy Moss from snap one. Wes Welker will again be a threat for 100+ catches this season, and a healthy Laurence Maroney should help give New England a more balanced attack. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have Brodie Croyle at quarterback, and Larry Johnson running behind a weak offensive line. Tony Gonzalez is older, and Dwayne Bowe showed some promise as a rookie receiver last year, but again, he has Brodie freaking Croyle throwing him the ball. This game should be over before it starts, and all one has to do is look at Croyle/Edwards vs. Brady/Belichick. Any questions? PATRIOTS 38-14.

Monday, September 8:
Minnesota @ Green Bay (-2.5)
Everyone is filled with anticipation as the Aaron Rodgers era is set to get underway. After the circus that took place in Green Bay over the summer, the Packers are probably thrilled to get back to all things football. Rodgers handled the Favre epidemic with class, and he will have two solid receivers to throw the ball to come Monday night in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings. Ryan Grant emerged as a do-it-all running back in the second half of last season, and if his hamstring is healthy, he is set to have another big year. Overlooked in all of this is the fact that the Packers have a ton of talent returning on defense which should be enough to keep them in most of the games they play. Names like Barnett, Hawk, Harris, Woodson, and Kampman get overlooked as everyone focuses on Favre and every decision he makes. I expect Green Bay to do quite well this season and remain in the running for the playoffs until the end. The Vikings are another team that has questions at the quarterback position. Minnesota has a terrific young running back in Adrian Peterson who can take it to the house at any time, but the name Tavaris Jackson could have the Viking faithful cussing all season long. Jackson has yet to show fans any reason as to why he is the starting quarterback, and in a winnable division, his play will be key. The Packers D will prove to be too much in week one, as Green Bay rolls at home to silence all the Brett Favre lunatics at least for a night. PACKERS 23-14.

Denver @ Oakland (+3)
I cannot think of too many reasons to watch this game, other than the fact that it is the first week of NFL football, and the Raiders have JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden who should at least be interesting to watch. Oakland had some success running the ball last year with Justin Fargas, and now that they have McFadden, they should be able to take even more pressure off the broad shoulders of Russell. Oakland's defense should be decent, and if they can get any kind of production out of Javon Walker at receiver, the Raiders might be competitive this season. The Broncos are sticking to the Mike Shannahan formula of a stable full of running backs who will all split carries and drive fantasy owners everywhere insane. Denver's offense should be strong once they get Brandon Marshall back in week two, but week one could be tricky, especially with them traveling into the black hole. I could see this game going a number of ways, but I will take Oakland in a close one at home. RAIDERS 17-16.

LAST WEEK: N/A:
SEASON: 0-0
SEASON ATS: 0-0-0