Tennessee (-8.5) @ Kansas City
The Titans are 5-0 and coming off a bye, meaning Chris Johnson and Lendale White should be plenty rested to take on the lowly Chiefs run defense. I have no idea how the Chiefs plan on scoring any points in this game given that Larry Johnson will be serving a one game suspension, and Tony Gonzalez is pissed at general manager Carl Peterson for not trading him prior to this
week's deadline. Johnson's suspension is a suspicious one since the Chiefs did not disclose what the exact reason for it was. They used the "conduct detrimental to the team" card, but one has to wonder if it is at all related to the latest allegation of assault facing Johnson. A 26 year old woman has accused Johnson of pushing her in the face at a nightclub. This is Johnson's third separate run-in with assaulting a female, proving to everyone what a model citizen he is. Needless to say, with Johnson out, the Chiefs have only one real weapon to take on the league's best defense, and that one weapon is extremely pissed off at his own team. Gonzalez claims Peterson told him that he would be traded before the deadline, but deals fell through, and Gonzalez is pointing the blame directly at Peterson. Apparently there was a deal in place with Green Bay which would have sent Gonzalez to the Packers for a third round pick. Peterson allegedly changed his mind at the last second and asked for a second round pick which was rejected. I would love to watch Herm Edwards trying to put a smile on these latest events. TITANS 27-3.San Diego (PK) @ Buffalo
Conventional wisdom says to take the Bills in this one. The Chargers are traveling cross country to play an early Sunday game after winning an emotional game against the Patriots last Sunday night. The Bills are coming off a bye, and they will be looking to erase the sour taste left in their mouths following the beat down they suffered at the hands of the Cardinals two weeks ago. I am not yet sold on either
of these teams, but I will put a little more faith in the Chargers. Marshawn Lynch is a guy who seems to be a very good every down back, but he does not have the same dynamic as someone like Ladainian Tomlinson. Trent Edwards should be back this week, and he seems like a solid quarterback, but he does not have the same big-play passing ability as Philip Rivers. Of course I don't trust Norv Turner or Dick Jauron, so that is a wash. The Bills defense is slightly better than the Chargers who have had problems stopping anyone this season. In other words, I am trying to break this game down by position because I have no idea how this one will play out. Anything could happen, and that is probably why this game is a pick'em. I will keep placing my confidence in the Chargers, misguided as it might be. CHARGERS 24-21.Pittsburgh (-10) @ Cincinnati
I have been wrong in picking almost every Bengals game this season, but there is no way I am taking them this week with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Fitzpatrick scrambles around like a
chicken with its head cut off, and he does not look like he has a clue when it comes to reading the defense. The Steelers have dominated the Bengals in Cincinnati in recent years, and I expect that dominance to continue this week. The Steelers are coming off a bye which came at the right time, giving their battered players a chance to heal up. Willie Parker re-injured himself in practice this week, and he may not be able to go Sunday, but Mewelde Moore should be able to fill in admirably against a Bengals defense that has not been able to stop the run this season. I don't think there is anyway the Bengals are able to put up enough points to win this week against a tough Steelers defense. STEELERS 27-14.Baltimore @ Miami (-3)
The Ravens laid a total egg last week against the Colts, and it looks like the early season shine has worn off of Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh. Baltimore's defense is still tough, but they could have some problems defending against Miami's Wildcat offense. The Dolphins have showed a new wrinkle to that offense each week, and I am sure they will have something new devised to take on this defense. The Ravens offense is centered around their running game, but they could have a tough time gaining traction this week against a Miami defense that has been stout against the run. This means there will be added pressure on Flacco who has struggled recently, especially on the road. This should be a low scoring affair, but I think the Dolphins will have enough to take it at home. DOLPHINS 17-10.
Dallas (-7) @ St. Louis
I am officially off of the Cowboys bandwagon for the time being. Dallas cannot protect the passer
on offense, and their defense has not been able to stop many teams. This would be a perfect spot to take the Rams. Dallas will likely have Brad Johnson at quarterback, and they have been surrounded by the distractions of Adam Jones and Terrell Owens. The trade for Roy Williams this week will go one of two ways. It will either cause Owens to completely lose it due to a lack of attention, or it could spark this offense, and Owens, by opening up the opposing coverages, giving Owens more room to roam. This could also pay off big for Jason Witten who should find more space over the middle. Tony Romo might actually be able to play after practicing Thursday and Friday despite a broken pinkie on his throwing hand. The Rams are coming off of their first win of the season, and they will be looking to put together what is known as a winning streak. I think the Cowboys will rally together for at least this week and pull off a big win in St. Louis. COWBOYS 34-17.Minnesota @ Chicago (-3)
The Bears had trouble stopping Adrian Peterson last season, and you can be sure they will have their entire focus on shutting him down. This will put the game in the hands of Gus Frerotte who
will have to make big plays at Soldier Field. Brad Childress has to be thankful that the game is on the road considering that the Minnesota faithful erupted into chants of "fire Childress" during last week's nail biter against the Lions. Childress is another one of those coaches who exudes zero confidence while roaming the sidelines. As long as the Bears are able to contain Peterson, I think they could win this game somewhat handily. Kyle Orton, yes that Kyle Orton, could have a nice day against a Minnesota defense that is susceptible to big plays in the passing game. Bernard Berrian will be making his return to Chicago, and he has actually come on in recent weeks to give Frerotte a legitimate target to throw to. I am going with the home team in this one, especially after Minnesota's performance against Detroit last week. BEARS 20-14.New Orleans @ Carolina (-3)
The NFC South is wide open as every team seems to play much better at home. The Panthers
looked awful last week in Tampa Bay, as Jake Delhomme played like a rookie against Monte Kiffin's defense. Fortunately for Delhomme the Saints defense is nowhere near as good as the Bucs, and he should have a big day throwing to Steve Smith. Drew Brees is the consensus front runner for MVP, and he has a legitimate shot at breaking Dan Marino's single season record for passing yards. He will have his favorite target back this week, as Marques Colston is set to make his return after missing the last several games with an injury. Reggie Bush is banged up, but it looks like he should be able to go on Sunday. Bush will have little room to run facing the tough Carolina defense. This game could be a high scoring affair, and I will stick with the Panthers who will be playing with an edge after last week's embarrassing loss. PANTHERS 35-27.San Francisco @ New York Giants (-10.5)
Speaking of embarrassing losses, the Giants looked awful last week in Cleveland. Eli Manning
made the kind of mistakes he had eliminated over the past 10 games dating back to last season, including a costly pick six as the Giants were driving in the Browns red zone, trying to make it a one score game. Tom Coughlin is the type of coach that gets his teams to focus, and this means that the 49ers will be heading to New York at the wrong time. The Giants will want to erase last week's loss from their memory as quickly as possible, and I expect them to come out of the gates quickly and never look back. San Francisco will need to feed the ball to Frank Gore early and often in order to control the clock if they want any chance of keeping this one close. Look for Brandon Jacobs to have a big day on the ground, and Plaxico Burress to make a few big plays in the passing game. GIANTS 38-20.Detroit @ Houston (-9)
The Dan Orlovsky Era is underway in Detroit, and I could not be more excited to see it. Until he proves me wrong, Orlovsky is the type of quarterback that makes selecting his games easy.
Basically the rule is pick against Orlovsky. Last week's game in Minnesota provided fans with all of the evidence they need, as Orlovsky ran out of his own end zone for no apparent reason. He ran on the white endline for 10 feet or so before anyone really realized what the hell was going on. The two points Minnesota got for the safety wound up being the exact difference in the game. Moves like these show that he might not be ready for the big stage just yet. The Lions also traded Roy Williams to the Cowboys, and it was a move that shows that Detroit's new brass might actually have an idea what they are doing. They received a 1st, 3rd, and 6th round pick for Williams, which seems like way too much for a guy who has never really proven himself to be a consistent number one receiver. The Texans pulled off their first win of the season last week in dramatic fashion. Matt Schaub ran in a quarterback draw on fourth down with only a few seconds left to give the Texans the win over Miami. Houston has some play makers on offense with Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton, and they have a dominant defensive end in Mario Williams. Williams should be able to harass Orlovsky all day, and Houston's offense should encounter little resistance in putting up points. TEXANS 30-16.New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland
The Jets look like they might be legitimate contenders in the wide open AFC East, and they face another tough test in Oakland, a week after beating the Bengals at home. Actually, the schedule
for all of the AFC East teams is laughable, as they have the benefit of playing the AFC and NFC West which are the two weakest divisions in the NFL. Brett Favre should be able to have another nice day, and the Jets defense will have little to worry about against the inept Raiders offense. Oakland has talked about implementing their own "Wildcat" offense which would allow them to use Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas in the same way that Miami uses Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. McFadden's toe injury has delayed this process, but he is supposedly getting healthier every week. McFadden has been a disappointment to fantasy owners, especially ones who took him early in their drafts (banging my head on the desk). Even if he is healthy, McFadden will still have a tough time running for a team as bad as Oakland. It also never helps when your team falls behind big on a regular basis, limiting the number of carries you get for the duration of the game. JETS 34-17.Cleveland (+7.5) @ Washington
Was last week's win a mirage, or was it a sign of things to come? That is the question all Browns fans are asking themselves, and they could have their answer this week as Cleveland heads to the Nation's capitol to face the Redskins. The Browns looked reborn in last week's win over the Giants, and their offense finally displayed the execution fans were expecting to see from the get go. With the Giants losing to Cleveland, the Cowboys losing to
Arizona, Washington losing to St. Louis, and Philly struggling to beat San Francisco, it is time to wonder if the NFC East is as good as everyone thought they were a few weeks ago. (Slapping the desk, doing my best Dennis Green impression, "THE NFC EAST IS WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!") The Redskins are good, but they are not the type of team that is going to blow anyone out. They rely heavily on Clinton Portis, with their passing game playing a complimentary role. Seven and a half seems like too many points to give up in this spot, and I think Cleveland might just go in there and pull off the upset. BROWNS 24-23.Indianapolis (-2) @ Green Bay
I was wrong. There, I said it. The Colts looked healthy and explosive during last week's blowout win over the Ravens, and my Indianapolis eulogy now seems a bit premature. Granted this team has two wins it should have never gotten, but like all good teams do, the Colts have taken
advantage of it and now seem ready to take off on a hot streak. Marvin Harrison played like the Marvin of old, and I wonder if the pending lawsuit regarding the Philadelphia shooting had anything to do with that. Harrison's quiet demeanor could just be a facade to someone who carries around Belgian pistols. Could his Philadelphia car wash be a front to other business?? This is all speculation, but Harrison may very well be a modern day Don Corleone. Needless to say, I think people would be wise not to piss him off anytime soon. The Packers have been somewhat of a disappointment this season, and their defense has not lived up to the expectations many had for them prior to the season. Fortunately, the NFC North is an open race, and Green Bay should be able to stay in it till the end. I just don't see them gaining any ground this week. COLTS 23-16.Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-11)
NBC just has to love this Sunday night match up, and people are wondering why John Madden
does not feel like making the cross country trip to cover this game. Seneca Wallace will be on display as the Seahawks quarterback, and he will have his hands full going against the always tough Tampa 2 defense. The Buccaneers continue to win without any legitimate play makers on offense, but they could be aided by the return of Joey Galloway who is a game time decision after missing the last few games with an injury. Tampa Bay's offense is nothing to write home about, but I don't see any way Seattle puts up enough points to make this competitive. This should be a blowout, and I would not be surprised if Tampa's defense gets in on the scoring with a return or two. BUCCANEERS 31-10.Monday, October 20
Denver @ New England (-3)
Welcome to the rest of the NFL, Patriots fans. They are now experiencing what it is like to have a mediocre quarterback at the helm. With Brady, the Pats could afford some mistakes in other parts of their game and still feel confident about winning easily. With Matt Cassel, New England can no longer afford those mistakes, and it shows how close most
teams are in the NFL on a weekly basis. Little mistakes here and there are often the difference between winning and losing, and when you are getting inefficient play from your QB, those mistakes usually cost you the game. Still, I think Bill Belichick finds a way to rally his troops and win a big Monday night game. One match up that could pose problems for the Patriots is Brandon Marshall against the New England secondary. New England's corners are all short, and they will have trouble with the big, physical Marshall. The Patriots will need to roll coverage his way all night and force someone else on Denver to beat them. This will put pressure on Jay Cutler to find his other receivers, as he has shown a tendency to lock on to Marshall, especially on third down. Marshall should still have a nice outing, but he will be outdone by Randy Moss who excels on Monday night and is going against a Denver secondary that has had its own problems in stopping teams this season. PATRIOTS 27-20.LAST WEEK (Overall): 8-6
LAST WEEK (ATS): 7-7
SEASON (Overall): 51-37
SEASON (ATS): 44-42-2
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