Week 5 Picks

Sunday October 5

Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit
The Lions will play their first game in the Post Millen Era, but it is hard to see this team changing the direction of the season. Jon Kitna has failed to show any leadership qualities, and Rod Marinelli gets out coached on a weekly basis. Receivers Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson remind me of the duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin in Arizona, but they do not have Kurt Warner throwing them the football. The Bears will have a shot to win the NFC North as long as Kyle Orton keeps from turning the ball over at a Rex Grossman-like pace. Rookie running back Matt Forte provides them with most of their offense, and the defense has played well this season and should have a nice day facing the turnover machine that is Jon Kitna. BEARS 24-13.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7.5)
The Seahawks should have Deion Branch and Bobby Engram back this week, but both players are coming off of tough knee injuries and they will have a quarterback with back problems trying to get them the football. Matt Hasselbeck's back should take another beating against a Giants defense that excels at rushing the passer. The Giants will be without star receiver Plaxico Burress who is serving a one game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. It has been rumored that Burress has missed as many as 40-50 meetings over the past couple of seasons which makes his contract extension prior to the season all the more amazing. Still, the Giants are 8-1 over their last nine games, which coincidentally is the same time that Jeremy Shockey has been absent from their line-up. That only loss was last regular season to the Patriots in a shootout. I expect the Giants offense to have a big day even without Burress. GIANTS 34-17.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ Denver
The Broncos could be one of the luckiest teams I have seen in quite some time. They are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 if not for some very favorable officiating gaffes. They beat the Chargers thanks to Ed Hochuli's blown call on Jay Cutler's fumble, and the Saints thanks to a missed off-sides call on a New Orleans missed field goal. Denver then allowed Larry Johnson to run wild on them last week, giving the inept Chiefs their first win of the season. This means that their only victory without controversy came in Week 1 over the model franchise of the Oakland Raiders. There is something frisky about this Buccaneers team as they continue to win games without a dominant player on offense. Tampa's defense has played well, and they could create some problems for Cutler who was careless with the football last week. Brian Griese has already gone into Chicago and beaten one of his former teams, now he has the chance to do it again. Of course Griese going for revenge is like chiuaua going after a rottweiler who just stole his bone. BUCCANEERS 27-21.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco
The Patriots will stick with Matt Cassel at quarterback which means that it could be a matter of time before Randy Moss is walking through his routes and alligator-arming balls over the middle. Still, this is a Bill Belichick team coming off of a bye, a week after they were trounced at home by the Dolphins. New England should utilize all three or four of their running backs to wear down the 49ers, and I expect the Pats D to play well, unless San Francisco comes out in the wing T offense like Miami did. I don't know what to make about JT O'Sullivan, but its safe to say that I don't trust him yet, and Belichick will throw numerous looks and blitzes at him to confuse him. The 49ers only chance is for Frank Gore to have a monster game which is possible given that New England's defense moves about as quick as Sam Adams after Thanksgiving dinner. PATRIOTS 23-16.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-6)
The Redskins have been one of the most surprising teams in the league so far, with their only loss coming in week one to the Giants. Since then, it appears that Jim Zorn has taken a class or two on how to be a head coach, and the offense has been opportunistic, plugging away with Clinton Portis and hitting Santana Moss deep. Jason Campbell continues maturing, and he is becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the league at throwing the deep ball. It looks like the Eagles will have Brian Westbrook back this week, and that offense plays at a completely different level when he is on the field. Westbrook's health has been a major pain to fantasy owners the past few seasons, as it seems as though there is never a week where his name is listed without the little red cross next to it. He has been the model example of a "game-time decision." This game has all the makings of an Eagles win. Washington is coming off of an emotional win at Dallas, and Philly is coming off of a heart breaking loss at Chicago where they failed to score inside the five as time wound down. Look for a hungry Eagles team and a Redskin team possibly let-down some after last week's big win. EAGLES 30-20.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-10)
The Chiefs won their first game of the season last week, and Herm Edwards lives to fight another day. Edwards job is probably safe for at least the rest of this season anyways, but he does not exude confidence as he strolls the sidelines each week. With Damon Huard at quarterback the team at least has some semblance of an offense, and Larry Johnson is running like a man pissed off right now (which he is). I really like this Panthers team, though, and Jake Delhomme seems to have gained even more arm strength than he had prior to Tommy John surgery. Rookie Jonathan Stewart allows Carolina to control the ball, and Steve Smith gives them a game breaker to exploit defenses when they start to crowd the line. The Chiefs victory celebration is halted at one week as the Panthers pound them in Carolina. PANTHERS 35-14.

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami
The Dolphins bye week provided fans with this terrific nugget of information: Ricky Williams still wants to smoke pot. Really?? No one saw this coming? The guy went and lived in the mountains of Tibet or something like that when he was banished from the NFL a few years back. Is there any wonder that he still has the desire to blaze up? Dolphins' fans can relax, however, because Ricky now turns to meditation to ease his mind. Just what every fan wants, a running back who is more of a hippie than a headache for opposing defenses. On the other side, it looks like Ladanian Tomlinson might finally be starting to find his groove which presents all kinds of match-up problems for the Dolphins. It will be interesting to see if Norv Turner uses Tomlinson and lightning-quick Darren Sproles at the same time to possibly open things up for Antonio Gates, Chris Chambers, and Vincent Jackson in the passing game. Regardless, San Diego's defense needs to find a way to stop someone if this team wants to fulfill its Super Bowl dreams. This week should not provide them with much of a problem though. CHARGERS 38-20.

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3)
I am not convinced that the Colts are just going to turn things on the same way that they do every other year. Peyton Manning seems to really be struggling with his mobility, and Marvin Harrison looks like he has lost three of four steps. Combine that with the fact that Bob Sanders has the durability of a china doll, and the Colts could be in for a long season. The Texans finally showed some spunk last week despite losing to Jacksonville 30-27 in overtime. Matt Schaub had his best outing of the year, throwing for 307 yards, and rookie running back Steve Slaton has been electrifying and dynamic in his first NFL season. I got to watch Slaton the past two years at WVU, and the guy has amazing breakaway ability. He has a knack for slipping off of defenders and then beating everyone to the end zone. It is certainly a change from the corpse of Ahman Green struggling to make it through the hole with his worn out body. I expect the Texans to pick up their first win of the season in a game most people would consider an upset. TEXANS 23-20.

Tennessee (-3) @ Baltimore
The Titans look like the best team in the league right now, even though I never thought I would say that about a team with Kerry Collins at the helm. There are not enough adjectives to describe the man crush I have on Chris Johnson, and Jeff Fisher keeps pushing all the right buttons to keep this team in sync. The defense has to remain the most impressive part of this team, and this could be a game that is settled on field goals. The Ravens are another team that is led by its defense, and Ray Lewis looks like he found the fountain of youth with the way he is flying around on the field. Ultimately, I think this game will come down to Joe Flacco making more mistakes than Collins, as the rookie quarterback will have his hands full against this stingy defense. I will go ahead and say six Rob Bironas field goals to three for Matt Stover. TITANS 18-9.

Buffalo (+1.5) @ Arizona
The Cardinals lost a wild shootout last week to the Jets 56-35. More importantly, Anquan Boldin was knocked unconscious during the game, and he will be out this week against the Bills. Without Boldin, Arizona will rely even more on Larry Fitzgerald and hope that Steve Breaston helps to pick up the slack in place of Boldin. It would also help if Kurt Warner holds on to the football which helped to doom the Cardinals last week. Warner accounted for six turnovers on his own against the Jets, and he has a history of being carefree when it comes to ball security. This will be extra important against a very good Bills defense that should be able to get after Warner for much of the game. Trent Edwards is another young quarterback that is starting to blossom, thanks to the running game of Marshawn Lynch, and the big play ability of Lee Evans. Buffalo might not be the best team in the league, but they are good, and their schedule sets up for a possible cake walk to the AFC East title. They will just need to avoid potential slip ups like the one waiting for them in Arizona. BILLS 28-23.

Cincinnati @ Dallas (-17)
Normally I write a separate post to break down the Bengals game each week, but with the way this season is going, what's the point? If Cincinnati wants any chance, here is the key to victory: Hope that the Cowboys pre game meal is laced with Terrell Owens' anti-depressants. Hey, it could happen. In reality, the Cowboys are coming off of a loss to the Redskins last week which means there is little chance of them overlooking the Bengals. There is the possibility that Terrell Owens will continue his crying and disrupt the rest of the team, but I don't think there is any damage Owens could do that would make this team lose on Sunday. COWBOYS 37-14.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4)
This is another game that could be a slug fest as the two defenses should control most of the action. The Steelers are beaten up badly on offense and will be without Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable with a sprained shoulder, and he gets beaten up week after week thanks to the porous Steeler offensive line. The Jaguars are 2-2 thanks to Josh Scobee who booted a last second field goal against the Colts and an overtime field goal against the Texans. Jacksonville had very high hopes coming into this year, but they are only a few plays away from being 0-4 right now. I don't know what to make of this Jaguars team. They are either not as good as everyone thought they would be, or they have just caught opponents on the wrong weeks. Their schedule has done them no favors, as they have already played Buffalo, Tennessee, Indy, and Houston. Now they might have caught their first break in the season facing a Steelers team that is nowhere near full strength. I think the injuries are the difference in this one as Pittsburgh just does not have enough firepower to win this week. JAGUARS 24-17.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7)
Aaron Rodgers may not be able to go in this one after injuring his throwing shoulder last week. If he cannot go, the Packers will be forced to rely on rookies Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm to lead the offense. It does not help matters that Ryan Grant looks nothing like the player we saw last year, and Al Harris' injury leaves the defense vulnerable in the passing game. They get a good matchup, however, against rookie Matt Ryan. Ryan has played well for a rookie, but this Falcons team seems to be a completely different team on the road compared to at home. Atlanta will need big days from Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood if they want to win, otherwise the Packers should be able to create enough on offense to move to 3-2. An X-factor could be Roddy White who has played well with Ryan and is probably thankful that he finally has a quarterback that doesn't throw every ball either 20 feet over his head or 20 feet short. PACKERS 26-13.

Monday October 6

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3.5)
The Vikings continued to struggle last week, falling 30-17 to the Titans which dropped them to 1-3. They have no real threat at wide receiver, and defenses recognize this, stacking eight and nine men in the box against Adrian Peterson. Peterson has still run hard, averaging over five yards a carry, but he could start wearing down if the offense does not find another option. The Saints have been lighting up the scoreboard this year, and Drew Brees has been the best quarterback in the league. Unfortunately, this team cannot stop anyone, so the Saints are in for a shootout every week. New Orleans has been a very good home team under Sean Payton, and I think this plays a big role this week. They just need to contain Peterson who should have a big day running inside against a lackluster defense. If the Saints can limit his big plays, this game should not be close. SAINTS 31-21.

LAST WEEK (OVERALL): 7-6
LAST WEEK (ATS): 8-5
SEASON (OVERALL): 37-23
SEASON (ATS): 32-27-1