Saturday, January 20, 2007

Mediocrity

When I was examining the steps the Bengals need to take to improve next season, I was going on the assumption that this team has made progress the past three seasons and that they were on the verge of becoming one of the AFC's elite. I did some further research, however, and I found that the Bengals have been nothing short of mediocre the past three seasons. Their wins have often come against inferior competition, and they have failed to hold their own against the best of the AFC. Here is a breakdown of their records over that time:

2004: Overall: 8-8; AFC: 4-8;NFC: 4-0
Losses: Pittsburgh (2), New York Jets, Baltimore, Cleveland, Tennessee, New England, Buffalo
Wins: Cleveland, Baltimore, Miami, Denver, Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia

2005: Overall: 11-6; AFC: 7-6; NFC: 4-0
Losses: Pittsburgh (2), Indianapolis, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Kansas City
Wins: Cleveland (2), Baltimore (2), Houston, Tennessee, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh

2006: Overall: 8-8; AFC: 6-6; NFC: 2-2
Losses: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, San Diego, Denver, Indianapolis, New England
Wins: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland (2), Carolina, New Orleans, Kansas City, Oakland

Summary: Overall: 27-22; AFC: 17-20; NFC: 10-2.
AFC EAST: 1-5
AFC SOUTH: 2-4
AFC WEST:3-3
AFC NORTH:11-8

Proving my point, the Bengals are 0-3 (combined) against Indy and Jacksonville; 0-2 against New England; and 2-3 against San Diego, Kansas City, and Denver. Cincinnati has beaten up on the weak NFC, and they have taken advantage of playing the Browns twice a year by going 5-1 against Cleveland over that time. They are also 2-5 (including playoffs) against the best in their division, Pittsburgh. When I looked at these numbers I came to a scary realization that the Bengals might just not be that good. They are an 8-8 caliber team. In their one playoff season, they were the benefactors of playing the putrid NFC North, and they picked up four more wins against Baltimore (who was ravaged by injuries) and Cleveland. Combine that with their two wins against Houston and Tennessee that year, and it seems as though 10 of the Bengals 11 wins came against inferior teams. They have yet to show that they can consistently compete with the best in the league, and without significant improvements this team could be looking at more mediocrity in the future.

3 comments:

Unknown said...

You make an interesting point about the bengal's production the last three years. Their is no doubt that they benefited last season from an easy schedule and a beat up ravens team, but I cannot charaterize them as a medicore team in those years.
First of all, in those three seasons they made one payoff appearence and were in the race until the final week of the season the other two.
Additionally, they have come up with big wins on the road in which they were at least evenly matched if not underdogs in the game. Additionally, the bengals have won the majority of their games against medicore competition especially the NFC, but again they have BEATEN those teams who are NOT AS GOOD. This is one trademark of good/great teams, and in these three years it is apparent that the team expects to win these games. This is not something that can be said about Bengals teams prior to 2004.

Looking at the numbers you cite, it is clear the bengals are not a medicore team. While they are winless against Indy and NE, the two best in the AFC, they are 2-3 against SD, KC, and DEN the best of the rest in the AFC. At this point point they are right behind these five teams, BAL, and arguably the overracheiving Jets. Of those 7 the bengals beat 3 of them this past season alone. To say that they are medicore and cannot compete with these teams is misleading. Excluding the NE and Indy games (the two best teams in the AFC) the bengals had a chance to win late in each of the other six losses they suffered. It would seem more accrutely that the bengals are farther from medicore then you lead on. While this franchise has always been a "next year" team, with a few key additions and a little luck we'll be competing with and beating the top teams in the AFC.

Zack Ellis said...

I would characterize 8-8 as mediocre, and that has been their record in three of the last 4 seasons. They have lost games that would have put them in the playoffs in each of those years, and that is something that good teams do not do. Good teams also have better home records that what the Bengals have under Marvin Lewis. They consistently have a defense that ranks in the bottom 1/4 of the league, and the offense has not been enough to carry them over the hump. Again, one playoff appearance in four seasons is not good in today's NFL.

Zack Ellis said...

You also left out Pittsburgh who the Bengals are 2-5 against the past three seasons. Even this season which was a "down" season for Pittsburgh, the Steelers split the season series with the Bengals, and finished with an identical 8-8 record.