Sunday, September 14:
New England (+1) @ New York Jets
Obviously, the big story line in this game will be Matt Cassel and how he performs in place of Tom Brady. Cassel will be making his first start since 1999 when he was in high school, but he should take comfort in the fact that he has Randy Moss to throw it up to whenever he feels the need. The other major storyline is one that will never go away. Brett Favre. While watching the Packers Monday night game, I was amazed at the constant references to Favre, especially by Tony Kornheiser. Green Bay was ripped by many in the mainstream media for not bringing Favre back after he retired earlier in the year. Everyone kept talking about how he gives them a better chance to win than Aaron Rodgers, and how much Favre means to the city of Green Bay. It made me sick. There are several reasons why the Packers chose to keep Favre at arms length: 1) Packers management has been working hard at building a quality TEAM. They have assembled a nucleus of young stars like Grant, Jennings, Hawk, and Barnett. They have rebuilt the offensive line, and turned it into one of the better lines in the league. They have built a tough, hard hitting defense that will keep them in every game they play. Despite all of this, Favre has been openly critical of Packers' management, year in and year out. Favre fails to recognize that last year's playoff push was a result of a quality TEAM around him. With Brett, it has always been, and always will be about one thing, ME. 2) If Green Bay had pulled the rug out from under Aaron Rodgers, they would have lost him forever. The Packers drafted Rodgers to replace Favre because every year Favre hinted at retiring. Rodgers has consistently said all the right things and done his best to prepare himself for his opportunity. If the Packers had brought Favre back after giving Rodgers the starting nod, there is no way that Rodgers would have stuck around in Green Bay, and the Packers would have lost its quarterback of the future in exchange for taking a shot with Favre for one season. As has been demonstrated throughout the rest of the league, it is not easy to develop young quarterbacks, and the Packers felt as though they had a good one in Rodgers, so they stuck to their guns in order to avoid having to go on another search for a quarterback next season. 3) Brett Favre had held the organization hostage year after year. He would not make up his mind on whether or not to return until mid-summer, at which point the draft and free agency process had passed. Can you imagine Ted Thompson or Mike McCarthy calling Brett in April. "Uh, Brett, do you know what you're going to do because the draft is a week away, and we would kind of like to know what our quarterback situation will be for next season." Of course Brett felt like he was bigger than the organization, so he would not give them concrete answers, and the Packers were left to build a team without knowing what its franchise player was going to do. Favre's handling of the process was terrible, year after year. 4) Even if Favre were to come back, who is to say you get 2007 Brett Favre and not the Favre that showed up the previous years. People were calling Favre done and over the hill after 2006 because he had become a turnover machine that was killing the Packers chances of winning. Sure, last year Favre threw 28 touchdowns against 15 interceptions and completed a career high 66.5% of his passes. But what about the previous two seasons? Well in 2005 and 2006 combined, he had 38 touchdowns and 47 interceptions. No team will be able to compete with their quarterback being so careless with the football. There are a few other things people need to remember about Favre when they think about his legacy:
- Favre has always been a prima donna. He was traded from the Falcons because he did not put forth the necessary work in learning the playbook. Even in Green Bay, Favre made it clear that he only cared about Sundays, and the rest of the week was a bore to him.
- More often than not, Favre has thrown the back-breaking interceptions that have ended the Packers seasons. Last year against New York, a few years ago against Seattle, and his playoff performance against Minnesota all come to mind. He has always relied on his gunslinger mentality, and this is not the way to win in the playoffs. If any other quarterback ran around like a chicken with his head cut off, throwing ill-advised passes up for grabs on the biggest stages, they would be considered unreliable and a bad decision maker. With Favre, everyone always smiled and said, "That's why we all love him. He is such a gunslinger."
- His lone Super Bowl ring can be attributed in large part to Reggie White dominating the other side of the ball. He was also fortunate to play a very weak New England team, and if anyone can remember, it was Desmond Howard who won the Super Bowl MVP that season. Howard broke the game open with a touchdown return, much the same way he had done all season for Green Bay.
- When Javon Walker was holding out a few years ago, Favre openly criticized his favorite receiver for being selfish and not thinking about the team. I felt at the time, and I still feel now, that it is no one else's business when a player has issues with management. It is one thing if that player is holding out after just receiving a new contract (T.O, C. Johnson), but in this case, Walker was vastly underpaid and in the last year of his contract. If Favre wanted to say something, fine, but do it in private. Pick up the phone, call Javon, and express your concerns. Do not go out in the media and blast a guy. That is never the right way to handle things. This is especially funny because Favre is the same guy who screwed the franchise over several times by waffling on his decision to return or not. What would he have done if Donald Driver or another Packers player had gone to the media and said, "Make up your damn mind, Brett. You are selfish and hurting the whole team." My guess is that Favre would not have been too happy.
Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City
After watching the Raiders Monday night, there should be no reason whatsoever for me to pick
them on the road this week. Throw in the news that Lane Kiffen is kept out of the loop regarding the defensive scheme, and Oakland has all the signs of a team resembling the Jackson family. The defense could not stop anyone Monday, and JaMarcus Russell looked off to say the least. There really was not one positive to take out of Oakland's week one loss, even Darren McFadden left the game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder stinger. All that said, this Kansas City team is also very, very bad. They hung close with a Brady-less Patriots team last week, but they will be without quarterback Brodie Croyle this week, and their offense is already challenged as it is. Damon Huard will be in at QB which might actually be a blessing for the Chiefs, but I just can't see them scoring enough points to cover the 3.5 they are laying down. Combine the fact that Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris combined to go over 100 yards last week, and I think Justin Fargas and McFadden should be enough to give Oakland an upset win. RAIDERS 14-13.Indianapolis @ Minnesota (+2)
Was that the Colts on TV last Sunday night? The same team who has not lost in September since I can't remember when? It was certainly one of the bigger surprises of the opening weekend as Indy was beaten down by a Bears team that was supposed to struggle this year. Not only did the Colts lose, but they lost at home, where they were opening a brand new stadium. This cannot be the start Tony Dungy envisioned as he coaches what looks to be his final season. Peyton Manning
weak, and they lost both Joesph Addai and Dallas Clark to injury mid way through the game. Addai will look to play this week, but Clark will be a game time decision with a bum knee. The Colts defense did not look good as rookie running back Matt Forte ran wild on them last week. Adrian Peterson has to be licking his chops at the opportunity to shred this decision in Minnesota's home opener. Peterson rushed for over 100 yards last week against a tough Green Bay defense that was stacking the line the entire game. Peterson should have a slightly easier road this week, and he will help lead the Vikings to their first win of the season. VIKINGS 24-20.New Orleans (-1) @ Washington
The Saints beat the Bucs in what was one of the better games of week one. Sean Payton seems to have his offense clicking early, but that could take a hit this week with the loss of Marques Colston. Colston will be out the next 4-6 weeks with a thumb injury. The Saints will likely try and use a variety of packages on offense to make up for the loss of Colston, with Reggie
Bush playing an even bigger role in the passing game. New Orleans will also need some of Drew Brees other targets to step up. Devery Henderson had an 84 yard touchdown in week one, but that was his only catch of the game. Jeremy Shockey and David Patten are two other options that will need to elevate their games in Colston's absence. The Redskins looked pretty bad last Thursday night. Apparently Jim Zorn (right) has never heard of a two minute drill or a no huddle offense. With Washington down two scores late in the fourth quarter, Zorn still had his offense huddling, and he failed to recognize that they needed a field goal and a touchdown, electing instead to keep heaving the ball down field when they were almost in field goal range. Jason Campbell looked off most of the night, as did the entire 'Skins offense. There is just no way I can see them scoring enough to beat the Saints, even without Colston. SAINTS 27-17.Green Bay (-3) @ Detroit
The Packers looked how I expected them to look last week, as all of the post-Favre
Armageddon rumors turned out to be slightly exaggerated. Aaron Rodgers looked good, and the Green Bay defense did what was necessary to pull out an opening win against the division rival Vikings. Rodgers should be able to find more success this week as he goes against a team who allowed Matt Ryan to throw a touchdown on his first ever NFL pass. There should be big statistical weeks from Rodgers, Donald Driver, and Greg Jennings. The Packers defense will have its hands full, however, as they go against one of the more talented receiving tandems in the league in Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Williams and Johnson will keep corners Al Harris and Charles Woodson busy all game, and I would not be surprised if this game winds up being relatively high scoring. In the end, there is no way I can take a team that looked as bad as the Lions did last week (not counting my Raiders pick). PACKERS 34-24.Chicago @ Carolina (-3)
Both the Bears and Panthers were impressive in Week 1, as they both went on the road and beat two of the top teams in the AFC. Carolina, who is without star receiver Steve Smith for the first two weeks, went into San Diego, and pulled out a last second victory 26-24. Jake Delhomme appears to be back after missing almost all of last season with an elbow injury. Delhomme had surgery on the elbow, and after rehabilitating all off season, he debuted in '08 going 23-41 for 247 yards and one touchdown. When healthy, Delhomme has been one of the top 10-12 quarterbacks in the league, and he should have a fine 2008, especially once his favorite target Steve Smith returns. The Bears were just as impressive, going into Indy Sunday night and
dominating the Colts, 29-13. Rookie running back Matt Forte was stellar in his debut, rushing 23 times for 123 yards and one touchdown. Kyle Orton was Kyle Orton at quarterback, going 13-21 for 150 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. The defense looked more like the Super Bowl 2006 defense than the banged up defense of '07 that struggled for most of the year. If Orton can avoid turnovers and the defense stays healthy, the Bears could contend in what could be a wide open NFC North. Still, I like the Panthers at home this week. PANTHERS 20-14.New York Giants (-9) @ St. Louis
For all intents and purposes, the 2008 NFL season both began and ended last Sunday for the St. Louis Rams. The Rams were pummeled by the Eagles 38-3 in a game that wasn't even that close. St. Louis was 0-11 on third down in that game, and they mustered only 8 total first downs. They were out gained 522-166, and they did not manage to make it into the red zone once all day. If there has ever been a
game of more complete domination, it was probably a varsity high school team scrimmaging against their freshman team. However, even in that situation, the freshman team would probably find a way to convert a third down at some point. The Giants looked the exact opposite as they came out last Thursday night and picked up right where they left off in Glendale last February when they were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. New York took it to division rival Washington 16-7, and they were led by a defense that didn't seem to miss a beat without Umenyiora and Strahan. Justin Tuck and Mathias Kiwanuka were able to pressure Jason Campbell consistently, and the Giants' offense was led by Plaxico Burress who had signed a contract extension just before the game. Burress led the way for New York with 10 catches for 133 yards, and he should be able to have a field day against St. Louis who allowed 414 yards passing to Eagle quarterbacks last week. Nine points is a lot to lay down on the road, unless of course you're giving them to Scott Linehan and the Rams. GIANTS 31-7.Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville
The Bills are another team that looked dominant in week one as they whooped
Seattle 34-10. Buffalo was the beneficiary of a punt return TD and another special teams TD on a fake field goal. Seattle was unable to get anything going all day, as Matt Hasselbeck had one of his worst games as a pro, going 17-41 for 190 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Jaguars dropped their opener to Tennessee, and things don't look to get any better as the Jacksonville offensive line is a train wreck right now. The Jags lost both of their starting guards on Sunday, and they were held to only 33 yards rushing. Jacksonville has been a team built around the running game the past few years, and if they are unable to run the ball, and David Garrard is forced to throw it 35 times/game, the AFC favorites of many could be on the outside looking in at the playoffs come January. Jack Del Rio should be able to get his team re-focused, but it might take another week or two for them to overcome their injuries and gel. Buffalo keeps the Jags winless in a low scoring affair. BILLS 13-9.Atlanta (+7) @ Tampa Bay
Call me crazy, but I will take another road dog getting a touchdown. The Falcons were one of the NFL's pleasant surprises of week one, beating Detroit 34-21. Michael Turner ran wild on the Lions' defense, going for 220 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. Matt Ryan threw a touchdown pass on his first NFL throw and was not asked to do too much
the rest of the game, going 9-13 for 161 yards with zero interceptions. Atlanta probably isn't as good as they looked last week, but new head coach Mike Smith will stay dedicated to the running game with Turner and Jerious Norwood, keeping the pressure low on Ryan. Ryan will face a major test this week against Monte Kiffen's Tampa 2 defense, so look for another heavy dose of Turner. The Bucs' lost a close one in week one to New Orleans 24-20. They also lost Jeff Garcia for this week with a sprained ankle. This means that much traveled Brian Griese will be getting the start for Tampa. There are rumors circulating that Tampa is willing to trade Garcia which would be a huuuuuuge mistake in my mind. Garcia led the Bucs to the playoffs last season, and he won the final five regular season games and a playoff game for Philadelphia the year before. This kind of quarterback turmoil is never good for a team, and it could affect Tampa's playoff chances this year. Add in the fact that Greise will be throwing to the ancient receiving duo of Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard, and the Bucs could be in for an up and down season on offense. I think they win at home this week, but I expect it to be closer than the spread would indicate. BUCCANEERS 23-21.San Francisco @ Seattle (-7)
Neither of these teams impressed in their 2008 openers, but Seattle at least has a track record of being the class of the NFC West for the past several years. The
49ers, on the other hand, appear to have no direction to speak of, and head coach Mike Nolan could find himself looking for a new job before the season is over. The move could be accelerated due to the fact that they hired Mike Martz as offensive coordinator in the off season. Martz has head coaching experience in St. Louis where he led the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance in 2001. Martz is known as having one of the best offensive minds in football, but his attitude and personality has rubbed many people the wrong way in the past. The Seahawks are a team devastated by injuries to their wide receivers. Deion Branch might be ready to go this week, but Bobby Engram is out until at least week 5, and they lost Nate Burleson for the season last week with a torn ACL. After taking a drubbing by the Bills last week, Mike Holmgren should have his team re-focused for their home opener. Seattle should find a way to put enough points on the board, despite the fact that their receivers resemble the ICU ward at Seattle General. SEAHAWKS 30-14.Miami (+7) @ Arizona
The Dolphins looked surprisingly competent in week one, losing to the Jets 20-14. It is amazing what an average quarterback can do for a team, as Chad Pennington has provided a sense of calm and confidence to the Miami offense. They hung tough last week despite not being able to run the ball at all. They should have more success this week against an Arizona team that was less than impressive against the 49ers. The Cardinals have a great receiving group led by Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, but the team has yet to show enough ability to translate that into wins on a consistent basis. I think Miami will have a new sense of confidence following their showing last week, and I think this could be the upset of the week, giving Tony Sparano and Bill Parcells a win to build on for 2008. DOLPHINS 24-23.
San Diego (-1) @ Denver
The Chargers suffered a heartbreaking loss last week to the Panthers, and it was announced this week that Shawne Merriman will undergo knee surgery that will keep him out for the rest of the season. San Diego has been battling injuries to several of its stars, but this team has too much talent to start the year 0-2. Ladanian Tomlinson should have a big week against a division rival,
and Philip Rivers will provide a much bigger test for Denver than the Broncos faced last week in JaMarcus Russell. Denver looked as good as anyone in week one, annihilating the Raiders on Monday night, 41-14. Jay Cutler looks poised to emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and he will have his favorite target Brandon Marshall back this week following his one game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. The Chargers will be more than ready to erase the bad taste of last week's loss from their mouths, and Denver might be feeling a false sense of confidence after their dismantling of Oakland. CHARGERS 34-27.Pittsburgh (-6) @ Cleveland
The Steelers looked like the class of the AFC last week, beating Houston 38-17. Willie Parker ran wild on the Texans, and his three rushing touchdowns were one more than he had all of last
season. The Steeler defense applied pressure all game to Matt Schaub, erasing many concerns people had about their linebacking situation. If Pittsburgh's offensive line holds up, the Steelers should win the AFC North, and they could be the front runner to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl come playoff time. The Browns looked bad last week against the Cowboys, and not even their high-flying offense could get anything going. Last week might have provided a wake up call to Cleveland fans, showing them that they still have a ways to go before being a true contender. That loss could either wake up the Browns, or it could discourage them in that they realize they are not as good as many pundits proclaimed them to be prior to the season. This will be the first of five prime time games for Cleveland, and I expect a result similar to last week, where an elite team made the disparity in talent apparrent from the first snap. STEELERS 35-21.Monday, September 15:
Baltimore @ Houston (-4.5)
This game was moved to Monday night due to Hurricane Ike, and that will give the Texans an extra day to stew about their week one loss to Pittsburgh. Houston was the sleeper team of many before the season (including me), but their performance
in week one left a lot to be desired. They had problems running the ball, and they should have similar trouble this week against a good Ravens defense. Houston also could not find a way to slow down the Steelers offense, but they should be able to have a little more success this week against Joe Flacco and the Ravens. Baltimore was surprising last week, as Flacco was steady, and Baltimore followed an old formula it has had success with in the past: Run the ball+good defense=WIN. This week could be different, however, because Mario Williams will be able to provide pressure on Flacco that the Bengals defense could not do. Houston should be able to stack the box against the Ravens running attack, and allow Williams to frustrate Flacco without having to commit too many people to the blitz. If Schaub and Andre Johnson can find a way to keep their rhythm, Houston should pull out its first win. TEXANS 20-10.Philadelphia @ Dallas (-7)
This could be the game of the weekend, as two division rivals square off in what should be a shootout. The Cowboys took care of business last week in Cleveland 28-10, and their offense will provide the Eagles with a much greater test than the
Rams did last week. The injury status of Marion Barber will be important. Barber left last week's game after injuring his ribs. He has only damaged cartilage, but that can be just as painful as if he had cracked one of his ribs. The difference is that he should be able to go Monday night, and the injury he has will depend on his threshold for pain. If anyone has watched Barber run the past few seasons, he is a tough mother, and I don't think there is any way he won't be on the field for this one. The Eagles passing attack devastated the Rams last week. Donovan McNabb was 21-33 for 361 yards and three touchdowns, and rookie receiver DeSean Jackson had six catches for 106 yards. Jackson is small at only 5'10" 175 lbs, but he is exceptionally fast. His speed and acceleration played a large role in the Eagles down field passing, as well as in special teams. Jackson averaged 12 yards a return on eight punt returns last week, including a 60 yarder he almost broke for a touchdown. This game should be close early, but the Dallas running game will control the fourth quarter, and they will win by 10. COWBOYS 38-28.LAST WEEK OVERALL: 10-6
LAST WEEK ATS: 9-7
SEASON OVERALL: 10-6
SEASON ATS: 9-7
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