Bye In The Jungle?

With three weeks remaining in the NFL season, the Bengals have the unique opportunity to gain a first round bye in the playoffs. They are tied right now with Denver at 10-3, and the remaining schedules of the two teams are very similar. Denver's schedule from here on out is: @ Buffalo, home to Oakland, and @ San Diego. Cincinnati's looks like this: @ Detroit, home to Buffalo, and @ Kansas City. Denver has the tie breaker right now due to their conference record, but the next three weeks will be critical in determining who gets the bye. Here is a look at those games.

Week 15: Denver @ Buffalo (12/17); Cincinnati @ Detroit (12/18): Denver has a favorable matchup against a surprisingly weak Buffalo defense. Buffalo was supposed to have one of the best defenses in the league coming into this year, but they have stayed towards the bottom of the rankings all year. They rank 31st in run defense giving up 141 yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry. This is not good considering that Denver ranks 2nd in the NFL with 157.6 rusing yards/game, and they average 4.8 yards/carry. The only chance Buffalo has at this game would be to have 2 or 3 big plays from Losman to Lee Evans, and for Jake Plummer to make some mistakes with the football. Other than that both teams are playing poorly lately. Denver lost to Kansas City two weeks ago, and they barely escaped against a bad Baltimore team last week with a 12-10 win. Buffalo gave up a 20 point lead to Miami two weeks ago in a 24-23 loss, and they were crushed by New England last week 35-7. There has also been turmoil coming out of Buffalo with news of Eric Moulds' displeasure with his lack of chances in the Buffalo offense. It appears that Moulds and other high priced free agents like Sam Adams will be gone at season's end. If coach Mike Mularkey can rally the troops, Buffalo could pull off the upset. Otherwise, it should be an easy win for Denver.

Cincinnati @ Detroit: This game is even more clear cut than the Denver game. Cincinnati goes into Detroit to face a team that has been in turmoil for almost the entire year. They have experienced a coaching change, and multiple changes at the quarterback position. Detroit fans have been calling for GM Matt Millen's head. There is also talk of an "orange-out" this weekend. Lions' fans are calling for everyone to wear orange to the game as a way of showing their displeasure with Lions' management. The Bengals slipped by last week with a 23-20 win over Cleveland in an obvious let-down game after their big win at Pittsburgh. Their offense struggled worse than it has all season, but if there is any cure for that, it is a trip to Detroit. This coupled with the fact that they clinch the AFC North with a win means they should win big.

Week 16: Oakland @ Denver; Buffalo @ Cincinnati: Both of these games take place on Christmas Eve, and the Bengals would love to receive an early present compliments of the Raiders. This is unlikely given that it is in Denver and that Oakland is another team in transition right now. Oakland has made a change at quarterback this week from veteran Kerry Collins to Marques Tuiasosopo. Tuiasosopo has shown some promise in limited action in his career, but Invesco Field is not a great place to learn on the job. Denver should have an easy time in this one, but things can always get interesting with Jake Plummer at the helm.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati: See above for this game. Honestly though, the Bengals should win easily against a Buffalo team that is in shambles. They also owe Buffalo a payback from last year when the Bills beat the Bengals in Cincinnati eliminating any hope Cincinnati might have had for the playoffs. Last season the Bengals had Jon Kitna at quarterback in that game after Carson Palmer got injured against New England. As long as Palmer is healthy this year, look for a big Cincinnati win.

Week 17: Denver @ San Diego (12/31); Cincinnati @ Kansas City (1/01): It will all come down to the final week of the season. The only remaining games against winning teams for either Denver or Cincinnati will be in week 17. Denver will have to travel to San Diego where they will be able to clinch a first round bye with a win. Denver beat San Diego 20-17 all the way back in week 2. San Diego may also be fighting for a wild card spot in this game depending on what happens to them in weeks 15 and 16. This will be an interesting matchup between the #2 ranked rushing offense in the NFL (Denver) vs. the #1 ranked defense against the run in San Diego. Denver is actually ranked #2 against the run, and they will also have their hands full when they go against the #6 ranked rushing offense of the Chargers. This game could ultimately come down to who makes the most plays on defense. They are both top ten offensively, and their defenses both have their strong suits. Whichever team can exploit the others' defense will have the best shot at winning this one. I think that San Diego will do enough offensively to win, and they will force Jake Plummer to make a late game mistake. This will be the difference maker.

Cincinnati @ Kansas City: The Bengals have an extremely difficult road test when they travel to Kansas City in week 17. The Chiefs have won 17 straight December games at home. Luckily for the Bengals, this game is on January 1. Seriously, Arrowhead Stadium is one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL, and a Chiefs team playing for a playoff spot will not make it any easier. The Chiefs have the #1 offense in all the NFL, and will have a favorable matchup against the 24th ranked defense of the Bengals. This game could be a shootout considering that the Bengals boast the 4th ranked offense in the league, and the Chiefs' defense is worse than the Bengals at 27. The Bengals have been in shootouts this year, and they have been on both the winning and losing end of them. They lost a tough home game to Indianapolis 45-37, and they were able to top Pittsburgh 38-31. The Bengals should be able to dominate on offense, and if their defense steps up enough, they will win this game. They will also know whether or not this game means anything because Denver plays the day before them. If Denver loses, the Bengals know that the bye is theirs for the taking.

Ultimately the first round bye will come down to the final week of the season. The Bengals have a 50/50 shot at it. They would need a Charger win and a win of their own in Kansas City. It certainly can happen, but it will be a challenge to a Bengal team that has not been in this position before. Either way, the Bengals will be hosting their first playoff game in 15+ years which means that the Jungle will be alive and well into January.